111 replies to this topic

[Darmokk]

Since it's usually only passed around in the German thread, maybe one here.

Here is what accumulated login numbers for LOTRO look like since RoI. This is for all servers combined. Just hitting below the 200 logins/minute mark now. That is all servers.



This is a longer chart, however it only includes the old US servers before and after merge so that there's no jump from the Euros.



Individual servers etc are here (that url has charts that are updated occasionally):
http://wavehh.dyndns...lo2/index5.html

[SellingTheDrama]

to me that is all greek.

all i know is when i login (not that often since 3rd week of dec) i find same number of folks online as there was before ROI.

not always the same folks but seems lotro gets as many new folk as they have old folk leaving.

[Thrabath]

How are these graphs calculated? How correct/reliable is the data?

[Darmokk]

Thrabath, on 05 January 2012 - 15:55, said:

How are these graphs calculated? How correct/reliable is the data?

It is using the current login count per server, a number transmitted in plain text (unencrypted) and labeled as what it is (login count) to the launcher.  

I rate this data as highly reliable for what I use it for, which is compute the logins/minute numbers.

That does not mean that this number is universally useful as it doesn't take into account how long somebody stays. Obviously a single login leading to 6 hours of raiding new content after RoI (well bad example but anyway ) is quite different from logging into 3 servers and 2 accounts to grind crafting rep on each.

So, as all data you need to first look at what it says. But after that the reliability is probably very high, the one uncertainty that we don't know what the lower bound is. It is possible that a certain amount of logins/min that isn't customers always happens for technical reasons or for Turbine staff rotation.

[Mabusian]

I would have expected a much bigger influence from SW:TOR. Looks like it's only a small fraction. In some months there might be even more people joining because they want to play something similar between SW:TOR patches without paying another monthly fee.

[The Bohunk]

Mabusian, on 05 January 2012 - 16:46, said:

I would have expected a much bigger influence from SW:TOR. Looks like it's only a small fraction.

That's why I question the accuracy of the data, honestly.
Unless there was an instantaneous large influx of players at the same time people left for TOR, there's no way they could maintain numbers like that. It would be hella coincidence.... From what I've seen myself, heard from those in other kins and what I've read on the forums, lots of people that were playing this game before TOR launched are not playing it now. At all.

Of course I'm sure there is a population that just logs in to log in and not play at all, too.
A 3 second log in to keep from getting booted from your kin for inactivity is probably a chunk.
My kin in particular had about 20-25 people during prime time on any given night up to TOR launch.
Now it's closer to 6-10 tops unless it's a raid night.

Right around TOR launch, our glff numbers were around 120, but now they've been closer to 200 since the Holidays.
Dunno....weird.

[Darmokk]

It's login numbers.  If people spend the majority of their time playing TOR they could still log into lotro to do rep cooldown crap or pay their mortgage or some other nonsense that Turbine made real-world time cooldowns.

Personally I think TOR is too different a game and people have a huge investment in LOTRO. In time and now in money. People overestimate how many people are how likely to radically switch. Sure, the hardcore gamers. But not the unwashed masses.

Finally, it was a launch over the holidays. A lot of people do have the time to attend to two games. And you will notice that there was no bump up for the holidays either.

[Dalthalion]

It's hard for people to let go of a game - or let go of connections made within a game - even when something newer and better draws you away.  Without the token logins, we would see the statistics as they really should be, which is reflective of the overall decline in interest in the game.  2012 does not appear to be a year where players will stay loyal to LOTRO, as the actions of WB/Turbine can't be relegated to being water under the bridge.  Too much damage done, too many bad customer service interactions, too many bugs, too much overt attempts to profitize most parts of the game.  It's all a mess.

[Brrokk]

Simpler explanation: the sets of people which LOTRO and SWTOR appeal to don't overlap as much as thought.

And maybe the people who are in the overlap are keen gamers rather than specifically Tolkien enthusiasts or Star Wars enthusiasts. Gamers who enjoy any kind of game have already had opportunities to leave LOTRO. The remaining Tolkien enthusiasts won't consider it worthwhile to try SWTOR.

[Darmokk]

It goes back to what we said all along.

To really kill a successful MMORPG you need more than a new toy. Simply making a "better" MMORPG (whatever that means) will *not* move people over in great masses. Most people are either lazy or have some form of attachment even if they would like the new one better, and many won't even find out whether they do. You must have somebody destroying the old one from the inside.

[Dalthalion]

Like WB?

[The Bohunk]

Darmokk, on 05 January 2012 - 20:34, said:

It goes back to what we said all along.

To really kill a successful MMORPG you need more than a new toy. Simply making a "better" MMORPG (whatever that means) will *not* move people over in great masses. Most people are either lazy or have some form of attachment even if they would like the new one better, and many won't even find out whether they do. You must have somebody destroying the old one from the inside.

Not that I don't at least partially agree with this, but as we've acknowledged, these are only login numbers.
It speaks nothing to how many people are actually playing the game.

I still log into LotRO just about everyday, but spend far more time actually playing TOR.
So really login numbers can mean a whole lot: from logging in to play for hours every day or logging in to see if your AH items sold or logging in to make sure your kin hasn't disbanded.



As it stands, I am a huge Tolkien fan and consider myself pretty knowledgeable (and quite fond) of the Lore. Conversely, I have never done much more than watch the Star Wars movies or play with the action figures 30 years ago that some family member bought me for Xmas. I don't find the Lore nearly as engaging. That speaks little to what makes me decide where to spend my game time at this point. I am an avid gamer, but until TOR had only really stepped away from LotRO for maybe 2 months tops because nothing else interested me. Once TOR came out and I played it a bit I knew I'd have another thing on my plate and LotRO time would decrease.

So it certainly can be a matter of simply not having had an alternative and that's why someone stays active with a game. Myself and about 12-15 of my LotRO kinmates can attest to that fact and are the proof that a viable and desirable alternative can take you away from your old standby.

[Darmokk]

Well either way, at the very least the numbers will mean that TOR didn't do anything remotely resembling an instant kill.

No matter how you interpret these numbers, and who's "felt population" numbers you pick up from posts, this game (LOTRO) would be salvageable.

On the other hand we are approaching lowest-ever numbers in logins and regardless of what happens with stay duration that can't be a good thing.

[The Bohunk]

Darmokk, on 05 January 2012 - 22:37, said:

Well either way, at the very least the numbers will mean that TOR didn't do anything remotely resembling an instant kill.

Did anyone who knows remotely close to anything say it would? I don't know of a case where a game ever "killed" another game. That's pretty much impossible.
Trolls, sure. That's been a given since the dawn of online gaming and you'll see several posts of the sort daily on any official forum of even a slightly major MMO title.

Darmokk, on 05 January 2012 - 22:37, said:

No matter how you interpret these numbers, and who's "felt population" numbers you pick up from posts, this game (LOTRO) would be salvageable.

Salvageable in what way? I thought it was doing fine even in a post-TOR world?  

Darmokk, on 05 January 2012 - 22:37, said:

On the other hand we are approaching lowest-ever numbers in logins and regardless of what happens with stay duration that can't be a good thing.

Right - and it's more because they didn't deliver than because of anything luring people away. I would have played TOR regardless, but if I found RoI and Update 5 content more compelling, I would have spent more time actively playing LotRO than simply contributing to the login stats... then again, I was already pretty disillusioned by that time anyway due to their fail customer service.

[thordsvin]

The Bohunk, on 06 January 2012 - 00:52, said:

Did anyone who knows remotely close to anything say it would? I don't know of a case where a game ever "killed" another game. That's pretty much impossible.
Trolls, sure. That's been a given since the dawn of online gaming and you'll see several posts of the sort daily on any official forum of even a slightly major MMO title.

I don't know of any previous title but I do know of a future MMO that will probably kill off another title. It's called "Neverwinter" and it will kill off DDO once and for all. Now that I think about it, SWTOR was probably the last nail in the coffin for SWG. Though from what I've read there were a number of other reasons it died but I think that's as close as you'll get (not very good examples I know.)

[Darmokk]

The Bohunk, on 06 January 2012 - 00:52, said:

Salvageable in what way? I thought it was doing fine even in a post-TOR world?  

TOR didn't make much of a dent.

But there is no way to deny that there is a strong downward trend, at solid 20% loss since November. The suits at WB will look at charts not much different from these to decide whether this game gets the axe or not.

[The MMO Troll]

thordsvin, on 06 January 2012 - 02:24, said:

I don't know of any previous title but I do know of a future MMO that will probably kill off another title. It's called "Neverwinter" and it will kill off DDO once and for all. Now that I think about it, SWTOR was probably the last nail in the coffin for SWG. Though from what I've read there were a number of other reasons it died but I think that's as close as you'll get (not very good examples I know.)

Now this I absolutely agree with!

DDO is F2P like LOTRO, Neverwinter is "No Subscription", like Guild Wars.
DDO monetizes most of the game, Neverwinter will sell fluff in their Store (like Champions Online).
DDO is saddled with one of the worst D&D settings ever devised. Neverwinter has one of the best.

There is only one thing going against Neverwinter right now, and that is that the game is from Cryptic, which isn't a particularly popular developer right now. But by the time Neverwinter comes out late this year, Cryptic will have significant experience with F2P via Champions Online and Star trek Online, and they have the deep pockets of Perfect World behind them, so I see a bright future for Neverwinter.

I doubt DDO will die off immediately when Neverwinter launches, but it will begin a quick slide into mediocrity and disappear within a year, in my estimation. All DDO has going for it now is that it is the only D&D-based MMO, and with neverwinter, they lose even that advantage. All that will be left is another action-based MMO in a bad setting.

[EDIT - Oh, I forgot... Neverwinter will feature a modified version of Star Trek Online's Foundry system, which allows players to create content for others to play, from small solo quests to full-scale dungeon adventures. That alone should kick the heck out of DDO!]

[Jackalope]

I think Goblin Works Pathfinder Online is going to kill both DDO, if it's still running, and whatever joke of DnD Neverwinter has. Wizards has totally f'd the DnD brand. They ruined Battletech too. Dumbed down totally. May as well play WoW if that's what you want from a game.

[The MMO Troll]

Jackalope, on 06 January 2012 - 04:08, said:

I think Goblin Works Pathfinder Online is going to kill both DDO, if it's still running, and whatever joke of DnD Neverwinter has. Wizards has totally f'd the DnD brand. They ruined Battletech too. Dumbed down totally. May as well play WoW if that's what you want from a game.

Considering Goblin Works just got the license for Pathfinder last November, and they have no estimate for a release date for the game, as well as that they are a small development house with (to my knowledge) no previous experience in making an MMO... well... I think Pathfinder Online will be out about the same time as the Stargate Worlds comes out.

[Agra]

Off-topic

Jackalope, on 06 January 2012 - 04:08, said:

... Pathfinder Online ...

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The certificate is only valid for secure.paizo.com 
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