111 replies to this topic

[Wayshuba]

The Bohunk, on 15 March 2012 - 16:45, said:

Which media avenues typically generate the most revenue? If you say "PC Gaming", you are incorrect. Simply by virtue of the market that Turbine caters to, they will never likely compete with the mass-appeal of a platform title. Ever.

What I would be interested to see is how many PC-only titles would register on that same list whether they're WB or other. Maybe WoW. Probably not TOR. Probably nothing else. Even the almighty TOR is not living up to expectations... and I would be curious to see where it registers even on EA's list of earners. It's not going to compete with their platform sports titles, that's for sure - and The Sims, forget it....

Don't know where your getting this information. The CEO of EA himself has stated on record that TOR has exceeded expectations. They have almost 1.5 million subscribers... Not units sold, but subscribers. At an average of $12/month that is $18 million/month. Also, this has been confirmed by the sheer size of the dev team still working on TOR. As to no living up to expectations, this has been nothing but hyperbole - the numbers are saying otherwise.

The Bohunk, on 15 March 2012 - 16:45, said:

WB could not have had any misconceptions about what to expect from Turbine. If they were to double or even triple their revenue, it would still be petty cash to WB, by your own admission. All we have is their word, unfortunately, and speculation is nothing but. The game's still here, isn't that all that really matters?

Yes the game is still currently here. So have many shows made a few seasons under WB before being suddenly canceled. It is in WB's blood, don't think the methods in the gaming industry will change that.

The Bohunk, on 15 March 2012 - 16:45, said:

They're still profitable. WB isn't going to keep a sinking ship afloat. They'll drop em like a bad habit way before they make them a charity case. It's a market share they never had before. Now they have one. The onus is hardly on LotRO or DDO to perform magic tricks, they just need to remain relevant. It's more what may lie around the corner...

You missed what I said. According to TW comments in financial reports they are most likely NOT profitable. They made a specific comment in the financial reports that the titles I quoted earlier above made up for the under-performance of other gaming units. What do you think that wasin reference too?

The Bohunk, on 15 March 2012 - 16:45, said:

Opinion. Unless you start seeing server merges or something, none of us would know of anything "on the wall" - and that's a fact. People have been saying the writing's on the wall since Moria came out... and it's said about every other MMO after about its first birthday. Nothing new here.

I've already seen several people come back to LotRO from TOR - and not surprisingly, they aren't the types to get all wrapped up in things outside the game. They just want to have an enjoyable time playing a video game - like most people. If that's LotRO, great. If that's TOR, great. Do what you have to...

The difference here is Turbine is NOT owned by a gaming company, they are owned by a company that will cancel things on a moments notice. It is the lifeblood of TW and Turbine is not going to change that. Fact is, Turbine is NOT in WBs core competency and that needs to be taken into account. Turbine's rapid change in behavior (from decent company to bottom-feeding scumbags) is so fast and so drastic it is obvious they are under tremendous pressure to get revenue up. Unfortunately, their strategy is very short-term focused but, unfortunately, will ultimately harm them in the long term. Again, this is not about TOR, or Tera, or GW2 or some other MMO hurting them, it is about Turbine continuing to hurt themselves.

As I mentioned before, my guild is a perfect example of a slew of paying customers that have abandoned LOTRO and moved on to another MMO because of Turbine's behavior. That was more than 50 players right there (now at almost 100 on our current MMO). Most former LOTRO players weren't even aware that U6 just released because they were so fed up with Turbine they don't even follow them anymore. And we are just one guild. I imagine there are plenty of examples like us.

[cossieuk]

Wayshuba, on 15 March 2012 - 18:28, said:

Yes the game is still currently here. So have many shows made a few seasons under WB before being suddenly canceled. It is in WB's blood, don't think the methods in the gaming industry will change that.

They would be far more likely to try and sell the game to another company than just cancel it.

[Wayshuba]

cossieuk, on 15 March 2012 - 20:18, said:

They would be far more likely to try and sell the game to another company than just cancel it.

More likely, put Turbine's online expertise and resources into building DLC content for platform and such titles mentioned in their reports. Has been very, very lucrative for EA so would make more sense to put those resources into something deemed more effective.

[Dalthalion]

It's known that WB was largely interested in Turbine's microtransaction model, and that's likely the IP that WB would retain, if it dissolved or sold the remainder of Turbine.

[Ardraug]

You do know that with all the lag issues F2P and U6 brought, the number of logins can also be viewed as people having to constantly relog from dropped connections, crashes, lagouts, and other random "goodness" ... just saying..

[Knowfere]

Ardraug, on 04 April 2012 - 00:46, said:

You do know that with all the lag issues F2P and U6 brought, the number of logins can also be viewed as people having to constantly relog from dropped connections, crashes, lagouts, and other random "goodness" ... just saying..

haha, you probly just solved the lag problem. An underhanded way to appear more populated than they really are...wouldn't put it past em at all

[Thrabath]

About profitability, I think the most important factor is Return on Investment; If they bought Turbine for example for 20 million dollar and they make an annual profit of 2 million dollar, that's 10%; If they can make a higher profit by selling Turbine, they will do that, if they can't make a higher profit with the money, they won't.

A blockbuster movie will maybe generate 500 million dollar of revenues, but if the costs are 450 million dollar, they also give a RoI that is around 10%, so it's almost the same to them

[Darmokk]

Here's my overall graph, from the beginning of the year.

Really not much action.  The bumps upwards are usually on announcements, not on releases. Buzz and press is what counts, not actual goods.

[The Bohunk]

Unless I'm color-blind, the German thread showed Arkenstone to have the most log-ins for several weeks running. We are a pretty low pop server and I know this for a fact, so one can only assume we're having more lag issues and disconnects than probably the rest of the servers combined?

It actually looks like a different server goes through that cycle of insanely high logins only to be replaced by a different one every few months. Not sure what's up with that, but it kinda reeks of bad data...

[Darmokk]

The Bohunk, on 05 April 2012 - 17:45, said:

Unless I'm color-blind, the German thread showed Arkenstone to have the most log-ins for several weeks running. We are a pretty low pop server and I know this for a fact, so one can only assume we're having more lag issues and disconnects than probably the rest of the servers combined?

It actually looks like a different server goes through that cycle of insanely high logins only to be replaced by a different one every few months. Not sure what's up with that, but it kinda reeks of bad data...

Arkenstone has been the target of the new user recommendation lately.

This curve is also interesting because it gives us a sense of how many new users sign up who don't yet have an idea which server they want to be on.

[The Bohunk]

Yeah, I'm just saying that's really hard to believe. I mean really hard to believe.
glff numbers don't fluctuate on Ark - I see them almost every day/night. 200 is about right most nights. More like 100 during the day.

Granted, I know that most new players might not know about glff, but when you're talking numbers that effectively increase the number of log-ins/min by 7x per week (and rising), you'd definitely see something. E and Brandy are no where close in the latest trend and their glff was more like 500+ when I used to check over there.

There is also no real increase in participation on the Ark forum. Again, I know most players don't use the forums, but I think you'd still see something - looking for kins, etc.  I also horse around in the lower areas cleaning up deeds or just using South Bree as a travel spot. Again, certainly don't notice more people.

With an increase like the graph shows, you would be able to pick up on the "fact" that many more people are logging in there than any other server.

IIRC, they also give 2 server suggestions at a time for new players. At least they used to. Where's the other recommended server's spike?

Just some points to consider I guess.

[Darmokk]

Only people new to the game will follow the suggestion which server to join, and those will take 6 months to pop up on /glff

Gladden was pushed lately, but a little earlier than Arkenstone:


Here is the same thing happening to Crickhollow a year ago:


Imlardis got a push after RoI:

[Iorionael]

It would be interesting to see what would happen with Withy server if they suddenly made that the recommended server for a while. It's been a very low pop server ever since inception.

[Darmokk]

Iorionael, on 05 April 2012 - 22:26, said:

It would be interesting to see what would happen with Withy server if they suddenly made that the recommended server for a while. It's been a very low pop server ever since inception.

You want that?

In the store next month, just 10,000 TP

[Wayshuba]

I think the graphs show two things regardless of Turbine claims.

1.) There is indeed and total overall decline in the number of people logging in. Turbine is making the mistake of scaring the existing customers away (who as longer term players were more inclined to spend cash than many F2P'rs).

2.) They have admitted that less than 5% of the current population spends money on the game. Which in turn means that they need to increase subsciber numbers just to extract the relevant portion of income needed to meet target. This graph is not showing this.

Personally, I thin the long term effects of their appetite to screw their customers and the obvious turns being made to sell game functionality in the store are indicative of the 'rooster coming home to roost'. I'd be willing to bet that Rohan will not be as successful and expansion as RoI was now that most are on to their sleazeball tactics.

Personally, I think the business models (or many businesses in America for the most part) have become so rampant at trying to rake in the dough for the top execs that so many are screwing their shareholders and customers at every turn. EA, Activision and now Turbine have fallen into this trap. As long as consumers allow this behavior to continue (i.e., the companies continue to rake in the dough) this will only get worse.

Rather disgusting overall when you think about it.

[Darmokk]

Here is the widest  timeframe graph I have.  It only counts the old US servers.

There is good and bad in here.

Bad: back to the lowest numbers ever.

Good: SWTOR didn't make a dent and the downward delta is flatter.

[The Bohunk]

Most of my time in the Store is basically just to see what kinds of $$$ amounts they are attaching to things.
I wonder if sales would increase if they did a little price slashing?

Probably not. I think most people who don't use it don't use it strictly on principle. That's why it's essentially going to run dry sooner than later - unless they can come up with more Barter Wallet-esque rackets. Not many people have the patience to play for free...

[JRonnie]

Wayshuba, on 06 April 2012 - 14:25, said:

Personally, I think the business models (or many businesses in America for the most part) have become so rampant at trying to rake in the dough for the top execs that so many are screwing their shareholders and customers at every turn. EA, Activision and now Turbine have fallen into this trap.

In my experience, the issue is that most bonus incentive plans are 'short-term'.  The vast majority are 12 months (ie how much money can we make in the financial year to impress the shareholders).  Hence the short-term, screw customers over if it means we can turn a higher profit this year, thinking that is prevalent in business these days.

[cossieuk]

Wayshuba, on 06 April 2012 - 14:25, said:

2.) They have admitted that less than 5% of the current population spends money on the game. Which in turn means that they need to increase subsciber numbers just to extract the relevant portion of income needed to meet target. This graph is not showing this.

When did they admit that?

[Darmokk]

JRonnie, on 06 April 2012 - 15:06, said:

In my experience, the issue is that most bonus incentive plans are 'short-term'.  The vast majority are 12 months (ie how much money can we make in the financial year to impress the shareholders).  Hence the short-term, screw customers over if it means we can turn a higher profit this year, thinking that is prevalent in business these days.

Actually from their behavior it's obvious that they have quarterly financial targets to meet.