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LasraelLarson

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Everything posted by LasraelLarson

  1. this was recorded on a phone, so quality is shaky and audio is out of sync with visual but, i had to share this! : an interesting look at 2 perspectives on the right debated.
  2. that is a pickle... does the funding push continue the existing product? seems OK in principle. does it get siphoned off for other projects? does it get used to alter existing product so it generates more revenue? does it get siphoned off to payout investors, old debts? or the multitude of other ways in which money funded alters the existing product from the way in which the funds were originally generated under? gets questionable. & that is without the specter of foreign money laundering dangling in the air. regardless the shift to pre-orders & generating funds up front, has changed the industry considerably. if there is a continuum of expectations, things usually avoid going south. but when all the shifty stuff happens, that is when it enters gray territory. Ditto! & Happy New year to everyone reading this as well. :D
  3. i also happened to be a lifetimer. i decided if i did not buy the Mirkwood pre-launch bundle, there was a really high chance i may not play LotRO again. i was done paying a sub, that much is certain. had GW2 launched at around the same time, rather than in 2012... it would have been a certitude. also only Blizzard game i have ever really spent considerable time in was Starcraft (didn't have to buy it either, so played that for free.) i have played through the campaign (offline versions) of Warcraft. i think i may have played a single match of online Warcraft 3, but i was stomped in first match and realized the learning curve all over again to become familiar and proficient & i just stuck with Starcraft. but i think by BLIZZARDs con you are referring to World of Warcraft? i have never played, not even a single second. regardless, my point wasn't to disparage Lifetimers... but rather the financials of the new servers... did they actually generate anything more than would have already come in via the original 10 servers? if no, then that is VERY bad. if yes... how much yes? and is there a yes long term? and that was my point... on that front i am VERY skeptical. and yes current subscribers could also freeload, but at the end of 30 days, or when their sub is renewed at least there is new income... but that still isn't the point. the point is how much new revenue over and beyond the regular 10 servers, did this create? because it absolutely did not create a lasting increase in the overall population. & the blip it did make, IMO, was not noteworthy. the winterfest generates as much, if not more players. but player numbers only matter to the suits if they also come with new revenue. & on that front, i am VERY skeptical. and the Daybreak studio wide push for year end funds in the sale of these big price-tag packages... yeah i don't suspect the legendary servers paid out the returns in numbers that justify their creation. & the effect over time on the population, may also exact a price.
  4. LasraelLarson

    Serverpopulation

    i think a data entry point for Arkenstone may have a typo that errors on the high side @Lux Aeterna... that or someone activated a bot army cause it is 50,000 over and above the next entry, which is completely abnormal. might look something more like this, i should think? Evernight picked up the most holiday steam and looks to be most current active. (Gwaihir too.) Anor and Ithil have lost steam.
  5. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    keep the darkness at bay. a twofer:
  6. LasraelLarson

    Recent downtime

    it seemed to me... to start up here just after Aylwen unloaded. i've noticed unusual behavior for many months now. & things got very sketchy just before it went down. i hope service providers are VERY gracious with their clients when resolving these issues, as it definitely could have a VERY negative impact on them as well. but the "BOT" problem across cyberspace, just grows exponentially. so much agenda driven fake traffic making noise to drown out actual signal.
  7. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    Возвышенное!
  8. LasraelLarson

    Merry Christmas

    Merry Christmas everyone! (a tad late) & A Happy New Year! may 2019 be even better and bring us...
  9. LasraelLarson

    Serverpopulation

    looks like the start of Yule-fest has folks heading back to their regular servers. did i guess Anor and Ithil about right?
  10. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    had a nostalgic read through that old thread, just thought i'd bring the relevant statements from Aylwen here. soo yeah... prior to FTP conversion i don't think it would be overtly cynical to say DDO was not doing well. & from that, they increased revenues 3 or 5 times depending on which lecture, or announcement you source from.
  11. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    if anyone is having trouble viewing this video: https://www.gdcvault.com/play/1012237/The-Future-of-MMO-Monetization just remember most search engines have a lovely cached version feature that allows you to bypass GDC's draconian viewing restrictions without a sub. :P the point i am referring to where Paiz admits this is from 5 months worth of data is roughly at the 54-55 minute mark as he is comparing revenues Vs. subscription models: Paiz is basically using Data from the FTP beta & the period of 5 months from FTP Launch to update 3 for all of the data he is presenting to compare to Data from the months just before this period... as percentage numbers, or multiplication factors. no actual hard numbers used of course, because that would reveal that 10 times & 5 times of an actual number, while being an increase, is still relatively small potatoes for prospective investors. actual revenue went up for a period of 5 months by a factor of 5X, but 5X of what? i've seen other places in announcements where it was represented as 3X... soo there is that. ;) here i am going to reference some Lotro timelines to make my point: * DDO Unlimited (FTP launch) September 9th. 2009 * Lotro dynamic layering was added with the Launch of FTP in November 2010 * Lotro server virtualization launched with Shores of the Great River 2012. now as far as server structure is concerned DDO is an instanced based game Vs. Lotro's open world. DDO has social environments (lobbies) that act as hubs for players to interact, but no massive open world. so how it handles players isn't exactly the same as Lotro. that said... any data i have ever looked at... DDO's numbers where ALWAYS below Lotro's... VERY roughly one third too one fifth the population at any given time. THIS SITE! stopped tracking back in July 2015 now there isn't an all time chart for lotro to compare too, but even the yearly... 8 servers Vs. (at the time 2014/2015 when Lotros numbers were down significantly) 28 servers... ;) & of course there is steam: Lotro Vs. DDO also i seem to recall Aylwen mentioning on these forums Lotro Vs DDO numbers at one point... regardless, i think it is clear Lotro has drawn significantly more players. it is also the reason why DDO can get a 3X number post FTP and Lotro only got 2X. one game has a larger base to start the multiplication from (*hint, it is Lotro)
  12. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    yes, it is all about revenue... i do not know the actual financials of Battlefield, whether it was in the red forcing closure, or heading too causing a shutter before losses hit. here is what i do know about these bullshit artists like Ben Cousins & all these huckster Conferees spewing their bile... they polish turds. in the case with Battlefield Heroes, the game launched June 25th 2009 & shuttered completely July 14th 2015. that is a shelf life of 6 years and almost 3 weeks. in the video i linked to previously, Ben Cousins uses a period of 2 months, or 60 days highlighting the period just before the transition in the game model to aggressive micro-transactions & selling all kinds of power in game. now with the above slight of hand graphs, please note this: * daily gross funding revenue is absent any actual monetary figures. (approximately double of what from the previous 30 days to the following 30 days?) * active daily users is missing any actual numbers. (is it 700 - 900 daily users? 7000 - 9000? 70,000 - 90,000?) there is one more set of data charts with a slightly longer period of activity: of note: * New Monthly Users spike (April 2009 - June 2009 right around the launch on the 25th.) is the betas where they gave invites through various avenues. there is an immediate drop of new post official launch. * monthly churn, every time the graph line drops, more people are joining than leaving. when it goes up, more are leaving than joining. Ben Cousins argues that this shows player-base stability with normal summer drops and winter upticks, based off what is a severe drop post launch... but just look at September 2010 - January 2011 on the monthly churn (lots leaving) & the dip of monthly users the last 3 months during winter. he is full of shite. now if the data was still good for the 4 years post this presentation, why isn't it shown somewhere as follow-up? & why did EA pull the plug in July of 2015? one thing i do know, user numbers were in the tank by that point. this game had no actual user number growth post beta, beyond the first few months of milking a diminishing pool of existing players for a higher Average Revenue Per User. an ARPU not sustainable long term. fucking Paiz... i hadn't seen this particular video, but no surprises. Fernando even admits in the video, the Data he is presenting is only from 5 months from the FTP beta & launch. 5 damn months. DDO Launched on February 28th 2006 with 14 American servers. plus 5 EU servers run by CodeMasters. On July 23rd. 2007 those 14 American Servers merged down to 5. in 2009 the EU servers closed & EU players were able to migrate to the 5 US servers. https://ddowiki.com/page/Server_merge yet when DDO Unlimited launched as FTP it was still the same 5 servers. so how does one add 1 million new users, get 20% of returning players, but still only need 5 servers? another bullshit artist. i viewed the slideshow & then went looking for other presentations by Adam Tefler... i smell a steaming pile of malarkey. a heaping of bloody obvious, with regurgitation of the same rubbish of the previous 2 carnies. non of these charlatan clowns have hit the mass market. yet they talk as if they had. ... more the fool who listen?
  13. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    ah what a good opportunity for a nice link... GDC 2011: i don't know if this particular vid is what you are referring? but the above faggot is one of the key figures behind the whole industry change & to whom Fernando fellate... referenced longingly. if it isn't that video specifically, i'd bet it is from Ben Cousins regardless. a real special piece of work that one. Battlefield heroes had a real decent player base & while it wasn't earning a high enough revenue per user to satisfy suits, it was far from losing money as this asshat states. it was still operating in the green, just not enough to siphon off enough money short term. so they made the change & initially there was a brief bump in revenues, however as things progressed, the user base declined & so do those revenues. we must inform you, that on Tuesday July 14th 2015 we will be closing Battlefield Heroes for good and stopping the service in its entirety." so a popular game FTP with micro-transactions was supposed to save, (I can't emphasis enough that the game was not in red territory prior to shift) ended up closing. the man is cancer.
  14. LasraelLarson

    Serverpopulation

    THIS is awesome! everything is clear again & Crickhollow data is back: the pie chart is equally clear now. :D THANK YOU AGRA! so Ithil is @ 10% of NA log ins & Anor @ 16%. Brandywine & Crickholow are both @18% ahead of Anor by a hair.
  15. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    welp i think this makes it a month of Sundays (generally speaking Sunday tends to be the peak for the week) & here is how the high point of the week looks one month in... combine the 2 at the weeks high point, roughly 1000 player concurrency... hasn't been a log queue this, or the previous week. i've heard somewhere transfers between the 2 are free for the rest of December? not that i have played on either, but right about now i'd be considering moving from Ithil too Anor, if i was... never know when it will be free again...
  16. LasraelLarson

    Serverpopulation

    YES, this would be nice. especially in the North American graph, it looks like the data from Crickhollow has completely vanished...
  17. bit late on the uptake for this, my current focus is sort of "ailluers" ATM but... December 7, 2018 Daybreak Game Company has had with another round of layoffs. Estimates to be about 30% of the company’s staff, most from the Austin Texas office... just in time for Christmas & year end.
  18. LasraelLarson

    Serverpopulation

    Agra, what does the 13% in pea green on this pie chart represent? clearly it isn't Dwarrowdelf. is that both Anor & Ithil combined? or just Ithil? hard to figure what it represents. also is interesting to see the log-ins on this graph after the initial spike, which seemed largely factored on a malfunctioning queue have dropped down. Anor matching up with Brandywine. & Ithil between Landroval & Gladden. is it just me, or has Crickhollow seemed to have disappeared on the above chart? still appears to be showing on the pie chart though... unless the blue in the pie chart is actually Anor? HALP! ;)
  19. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    yeah production schedules were all over the place. Lothlorian wasn't ready to go either as i recall. hard to keep it all ordered when disorder is the modus. ;) it is odd... (not really)... that the gains and drops are entirely consistent across all 10 servers... like the fine tooth detail you'd have to comb through data to find variance of any significance, that is one deep data dive! ;) but yes if you combine Arnor & Ithil, they have more concurrent players than any other server. Arnor alone, the margin is actually quite small over Brandywine, or Evernight, or Crickhollow, or Arkenstone (the former top 4.) Ithil alone currently matches but does not supersede Laurelin, or Landroval, which i find to be a poetic bit of irony... not unpacking that here. ;) and as of yesterday (Thursday Nov. 22) it has only been 2 weeks. what staying power will week 3 hold? ;) regardless, that isn't really the key factor i am drawing attention to here. rather the sum total of the 12 servers, is still below the annual peak over the Christmas holiday and into the New Year. so that speaks volumes to how successful this endeavor has been. the reality is the overwhelming majority, (by a massive landslide) is old existing players & a smaller portion of returning former players. the actual new this generated is but a thimbleful & arguably would have been the same new generated without. but that doesn't really matter much if it succeeded in sucking more revenue from the existing player teet. that is the only number Daybreak will focus on. did 2 extra servers increase revenue? by how much? & arguably this entire charade may indeed be good for the short term. which may be all they have anyway. does anyone really believe LOTRO has a tail long enough for another decade? more??? harder and harder this cow will be milked until it expires. show us them teets bitches! (i mean serious gamers & even more so LoTR enthusiasts... ) ;) i believe there is actually a legitimate cause for the queue. initially there was ONLY Arnor. entirely new characters all cramming onto one server with 4 starting positions (Elf, Dwarf, man & Hobbit) & players not only doing this on one server, but for multiple characters, because you know, those names saved must happen, even for those with all character slots unlocked... what is it 42 now? technically the layering feature should handle this, but that assumes bandwidth capacity can expand with demand... & i suspect that would be stretching assumption past the reality. ;) bottle necking players in a queue that has broken update information, forces additional log ins, creating an artificial high log in activity. regardless, i recall hearing the best numbers for Anor opening day was 1600 concurrent players. a number Brandywine easily gets on a Sunday during the Winterfest. i am sure a couple other servers hit that as well. so yeah they will toot the success horn, but reality is... the numbers aren't really that incredible. & i will again say, still below the seasonal high at year end... even all 12 added together... still less.
  20. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    this is a funny pickle... Epic Volume 1 has the whole Amarthiel - Ring Forges - Narmaleth redemption story arch that was released in instance form prior to the launch of Moria. including the whole pursuit by Narmaleths father Laerdan... several later books of Epic Volume 1 occur in Eregion. Turbine actually did push these Epic instances out prior to Mines of Moria launch, but Eregion itself wasn't finished in time & launched with Moria.. Epic Volume 2 opens Moria. while Eregion did package in with Mines of Moria launch, it was actually intended to be apart of Shadows of Angmar, but production schedules demanded the release of Moria by a certain timetable, so the actual Eregion landscape shipped late. not that out of character actually Eregion is technically SoA.
  21. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    just wanted to link another chart that shows the impact on regular servers in more detail as my previous post was at a rough glance: week 42 is about to scroll off the page, but matches activity on the 10 regular servers with week 43 & 44. week 45 is just prior to the launch of the legacy server & you can see in detail the uptick for each server in greater detail than the year chart. week 46 the legacy server is now open and you can see the drop off, even from weeks 42-44. so in an individual case like Gladden, the weekly (42 -44) activity was around 38 K (& rose about 12 K to 50 K in anticipation at week 45) & dropped down to 26 K in week 46 once the legacy server was open. Gladden lost 12K log ins per week to the legacy servers. you can do this with each individual server to get a much more detailed number of how the 10 regular servers have been impacted by the legacy launch. & it becomes apparent that the bulk of activity on the legacy servers isn't new, but simply shifted players OFF the 10 main servers. which is why numbers overall are still below the seasonal Christmas holidays and first couple weeks of the New Year. Lux Aeterna now has both: Anor & Ithil & i think these are displaying correctly now. (an extrapolation, so not exact, but reasonably in the ballpark.)
  22. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    this chart has updated with the data that now shows the impact: look at the last 2 peaks (and 3 for reference from prior.) second to last shows the uptick on regular servers in anticipation of legacy servers (roughly about 40 K additional log-ins over previous period) and the last peak shows the drop off on regular servers (roughly about 20 k log ins less than the period before the rise in anticipation.) so yeah regular servers have been negatively impacted, but not by much... but 10 regular servers generating just shy of 50k log-ins, even if both Anor & Ithil combined are generating enough to match... they aren't BTW... it is still below Lotro's traditional seasonal highs at the end of December and beginning of January, over the holiday session. this site (from chart above) has all kinds of log-in data presented in a variety of charts & time frames. http://lotrostats.gefallenehelden.de/ pity the legacy server data isn't there, but it is up in less detail on this site: http://lux-hdro.de/hdro-live.php though i think Agra may still be working out some kinks with how the legacy servers are represented... i am not sure if this snapshot includes Ithil, or is entirely accurate (would depend on the time frame represented.) it certainly isn't clearly labeled, as most of those names listed, are long inactive...
  23. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    these forum upgrades... it used to be when you posted a linked image, that was updated at the source, the image would update here as well. but it looks like in my previous posts both images aren't updating, but rather cashed here in static form... wonder if i can bypass the cache... now the above should be current as of this post... i hope. if they don't update, just click the image (in original posts) and it should pass you over to the live page, rather than a cached version here... or use these links: http://lotrostats.gefallenehelden.de/images/lotro-alle-gauge-3-year.png http://lux-hdro.de/images/live/lotro-population-anor.png is ironic back when i used to post these links a cached version would be handy as those posts were point in time specific & now i actually want it to update the way of things...
  24. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    this image will update over time and isn't a static snapshot, you can watch right here & yes it is an extrapolation and not exact down to the millisecond of actual player numbers. that doesn't mean it isn't in the ballpark.
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