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LasraelLarson

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LasraelLarson last won the day on January 16

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About LasraelLarson

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  1. i will actually give this topic a serious answer. based off the last 3 years represented in this image: if no external factors change... * Daybreak Games does not Implode ✔️ * Servers remain at 10 (+2) and are not further consolidated ✔️ * SSG avoids really big changes like they unveiled with HD trait trees, or other things to upset the apple cart ✔️ you are looking at another 8 years minimum (more likely 10). SSG could extend that out by simply consolidating a server or 2, over time. lets just say hypothetically they whittled the active server list down to one or two servers on each side of the pond (4 max.) that alone could add another decade, or more. by doing next to nothing, other than using the robust server transfer feature they now have, the game could go on for another 20 years. my only recommendation... it is more clever than a first glance could imagine... is Crickhollow is the first to go!
  2. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    now we fight!
  3. not sure why you'd specifically ask someone who records the log-ins from the client... though i will take a stab. given the rather slow & relatively small decline the past 3 years: population isn't down by much really. depending on how much revenue this thing pulls in, it will likely continue. any risk is likely to come completely out of left field... IE: Daybreak collapsing in on itself. the above graphic also doesn't include Anor & Ithil, which ad a small bump as well. the 10 main servers, whilst not completely bounced back, have regained most of what they lost to Anor & Ithil & it has only been 2 months. in another 2 months Moria will launch on the legacy servers & 4 months after that another addition of content. with each addition, that specific feeling folk are getting is going to diminish. real question is will this prolonged split of population have an impact, or will folk tire of the shiny & return to the familiar? regardless, they have gone on for 3 years on close to a flat progression in population, no significant gains & the attrition is relatively minor. no huge losses of players like with Helms Deep, or even FTP. so baring external forces, it will likely plug on. that said, Daybreaks studio wide revenue drive with the last cycle of big package deals @every title it currently publishes... what happens if they put that money into this new Planetside BattleRoyale & it turns out to be another "Infinite Crisis" ??? anyway, if that is something you want to further discuss, perhaps start new thread... this feels a bit thread-jackish. ...sorry Agra.
  4. LasraelLarson

    How are the 2 new mobile games from Turbine shaping up?

    rather than make a brand new topic, i just thought i'd update this old thread. so while no one was looking, myself include... just before Game of Thrones Conquest Launched on October 4 2017... Turbine shuttered Batman Arkham Underworld. & in November of 2018, Warner Bros changed the Turbine moniker to Warner Bros. Games: Boston. so Turbine is gonzo & the re-dubbed studio is host to the one mobile game. that one game is doing OK though is top 20 on GOOGLE PLAY grossing games. but it is not without controversy: https://www.gameofthronesconquestlawsuit.com/ seems there may be a lot of unhappy folk out there... plenty of bad youtube plays as well, but tis mobile so what one would expect. ;) with the last season about to air (6 episodes and it is over) this title has a bit more shelf life anyway. thought it was interesting that Warner ditched the Turbine name & that that first mobile is already shit-canned. & now you all know as well. ;)
  5. Mordors blip was less active than the server consolidation cycle (especially during the winter seasonal bump.) even the Free to Play launch saw roughly 5 days of activity spike and then an immediate and sharp decline till roughly the start of that years Yulefest where it leveled off for 3 weeks and than continued to decline right up until the anniversary in April followed by the spring fest. Then it dropped much slower right up until the release of Rise of Isenguard. and each major release had something similar. outside of releases, the mitigation factors tend to be festivals & the annual Christmas / New Years holiday bumps. so if you have ever wondered why they have those all the time... they do somewhat dampen the sharpness of declines post release. here is yet another graphic that absolutely highlights the November 8th 2018 Launch of Anor (and days later Ithil.) while Anor & Ithil aren't shown... it clearly & dramatically shows how the existing 10 servers were impacted. it also serves to amplify my point, that these legacy servers comprised (OVERWHELMINGLY) existing LotRO players & the new factor is illusory. the overall population did not increase beyond drawing (momentarily) back some additional former players to rubberneck for a few days. Anor & Ithils player-base came out of the existing 10 servers. the actual net gain is momentary and but a thimbleful over an above what already existed. & that momentary bump is already long gone. the bulk of the success, was nothing more than a jammed log-in system creating an artificial peak of activity. the reality is these new Legacy servers did not increase Lotro's actual player population. but the fart sniffers never see the evidence until it is too late. all that said, the population, whilst no longer growing, is also no longer rapidly declining & has been relatively stable the past 3 years. the up & down cycles are much less dramatic. so upsetting the apple-cart by adding servers confuses me... unless of course it was successful in generating revenue. even so, it isn't a good long term strategy. maybe SSG could redeem themselves and close Crickhollow! you think i say in jest? NAY! better idea than most can conceive!
  6. just some comparative charts to show things like seasonal (winter) highs as well as the drop off from previous years. & some STEAM highlights: when January's & February's info updates, i will update this second image. will be interesting to see what kind of sustain there is post Yulefest. but you can see the addition of the legacy servers bump wasn't huge by any means & much closer to the gains over the winter holidays. that is the thing though; the money generated by each lifetime push initially paid for DDO's FTP conversion & got the books in order for sale to Warner. the following lifetime subscriptions pushes either paid for Lotro's conversion, or got siphoned off for Infinite Crisis. & this latest studio wide drive by Daybreak games... probably is funding the new Planetside Battle Royal & who knows what other crooked shenanigans to clean the books of Columbus Nova & Renova's financing. in all this, the actual Devs had little choice... either than to high-tail it out of the place & find other employ.
  7. this was recorded on a phone, so quality is shaky and audio is out of sync with visual but, i had to share this! : an interesting look at 2 perspectives on the right debated.
  8. that is a pickle... does the funding push continue the existing product? seems OK in principle. does it get siphoned off for other projects? does it get used to alter existing product so it generates more revenue? does it get siphoned off to payout investors, old debts? or the multitude of other ways in which money funded alters the existing product from the way in which the funds were originally generated under? gets questionable. & that is without the specter of foreign money laundering dangling in the air. regardless the shift to pre-orders & generating funds up front, has changed the industry considerably. if there is a continuum of expectations, things usually avoid going south. but when all the shifty stuff happens, that is when it enters gray territory. Ditto! & Happy New year to everyone reading this as well. :D
  9. i also happened to be a lifetimer. i decided if i did not buy the Mirkwood pre-launch bundle, there was a really high chance i may not play LotRO again. i was done paying a sub, that much is certain. had GW2 launched at around the same time, rather than in 2012... it would have been a certitude. also only Blizzard game i have ever really spent considerable time in was Starcraft (didn't have to buy it either, so played that for free.) i have played through the campaign (offline versions) of Warcraft. i think i may have played a single match of online Warcraft 3, but i was stomped in first match and realized the learning curve all over again to become familiar and proficient & i just stuck with Starcraft. but i think by BLIZZARDs con you are referring to World of Warcraft? i have never played, not even a single second. regardless, my point wasn't to disparage Lifetimers... but rather the financials of the new servers... did they actually generate anything more than would have already come in via the original 10 servers? if no, then that is VERY bad. if yes... how much yes? and is there a yes long term? and that was my point... on that front i am VERY skeptical. and yes current subscribers could also freeload, but at the end of 30 days, or when their sub is renewed at least there is new income... but that still isn't the point. the point is how much new revenue over and beyond the regular 10 servers, did this create? because it absolutely did not create a lasting increase in the overall population. & the blip it did make, IMO, was not noteworthy. the winterfest generates as much, if not more players. but player numbers only matter to the suits if they also come with new revenue. & on that front, i am VERY skeptical. and the Daybreak studio wide push for year end funds in the sale of these big price-tag packages... yeah i don't suspect the legendary servers paid out the returns in numbers that justify their creation. & the effect over time on the population, may also exact a price.
  10. the title says it all. when the Holiday period is over and the annual winter peak tapers off around January 14th @ the festival end & folk return to routines... i think it will be abundantly clear the blip these servers made had no long term impact on gains & in fact may show a loss of total players, over previous years. and here we are New Years Eve 2018-2019: so did the legendary server player shell out big bucks? or was it just another freeloading opportunity for life-timers? did they actually increase revenues? because from my view, i think it cost them in overall players, maybe though that is OK if revenues actually did increase? but a success with a long tail, nuh-uh, no way Jose. this was no triumph i'm making a note here NO success it's hard to overstate my lack of su-prise gamedev ball in chain they do what they do, because they MUST for the good of the in-vest-or to bad for you, as good as dead no sense in crying, you will keep paying til your credit runs dry, but "HEY" you wore a neat cape for this i love you... i am being so sincere right now the lights are still on and there is more milking to be done so your glad you are still alive... still alive...
  11. LasraelLarson

    Serverpopulation

    i think a data entry point for Arkenstone may have a typo that errors on the high side @Lux Aeterna... that or someone activated a bot army cause it is 50,000 over and above the next entry, which is completely abnormal. might look something more like this, i should think? Evernight picked up the most holiday steam and looks to be most current active. (Gwaihir too.) Anor and Ithil have lost steam.
  12. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    keep the darkness at bay. a twofer:
  13. LasraelLarson

    Recent downtime

    it seemed to me... to start up here just after Aylwen unloaded. i've noticed unusual behavior for many months now. & things got very sketchy just before it went down. i hope service providers are VERY gracious with their clients when resolving these issues, as it definitely could have a VERY negative impact on them as well. but the "BOT" problem across cyberspace, just grows exponentially. so much agenda driven fake traffic making noise to drown out actual signal.
  14. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    Возвышенное!
  15. LasraelLarson

    Merry Christmas

    Merry Christmas everyone! (a tad late) & A Happy New Year! may 2019 be even better and bring us...
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