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Everything posted by LasraelLarson

  1. i will actually give this topic a serious answer. based off the last 3 years represented in this image: if no external factors change... * Daybreak Games does not Implode ✔️ * Servers remain at 10 (+2) and are not further consolidated ✔️ * SSG avoids really big changes like they unveiled with HD trait trees, or other things to upset the apple cart ✔️ you are looking at another 8 years minimum (more likely 10). SSG could extend that out by simply consolidating a server or 2, over time. lets just say hypothetically they whittled the active server list down to one or two servers on each side of the pond (4 max.) that alone could add another decade, or more. by doing next to nothing, other than using the robust server transfer feature they now have, the game could go on for another 20 years. my only recommendation... it is more clever than a first glance could imagine... is Crickhollow is the first to go!
  2. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    now we fight!
  3. not sure why you'd specifically ask someone who records the log-ins from the client... though i will take a stab. given the rather slow & relatively small decline the past 3 years: population isn't down by much really. depending on how much revenue this thing pulls in, it will likely continue. any risk is likely to come completely out of left field... IE: Daybreak collapsing in on itself. the above graphic also doesn't include Anor & Ithil, which ad a small bump as well. the 10 main servers, whilst not completely bounced back, have regained most of what they lost to Anor & Ithil & it has only been 2 months. in another 2 months Moria will launch on the legacy servers & 4 months after that another addition of content. with each addition, that specific feeling folk are getting is going to diminish. real question is will this prolonged split of population have an impact, or will folk tire of the shiny & return to the familiar? regardless, they have gone on for 3 years on close to a flat progression in population, no significant gains & the attrition is relatively minor. no huge losses of players like with Helms Deep, or even FTP. so baring external forces, it will likely plug on. that said, Daybreaks studio wide revenue drive with the last cycle of big package deals @every title it currently publishes... what happens if they put that money into this new Planetside BattleRoyale & it turns out to be another "Infinite Crisis" ??? anyway, if that is something you want to further discuss, perhaps start new thread... this feels a bit thread-jackish. ...sorry Agra.
  4. i had a tingle of curiosity this afternoon about how the 2 new mobile games from Turbine shaping up, so i had a look-see... it is still rather hard to tell. here is a look at the android app beta footage for the first, Batman Arkham Underworld, from August of last year: and the beta forums for the above... https://forums.arkhamunderworld.com/index.php i have no clue how this fairs at the moment, as mobile isn't remotely my platform of choice. a slow paced, "Hotline Miami-esque" game on a mobile device, set to Batman... i wonder how it will do? i'm not up on tracking things for mobile, but from my novice cursory search, it seems like this game has been downloaded to test just slightly North of 10,000 times. no clue if that is good, as i've never looked at the stats for other market successes on mobile platforms. & for the second game, the "Game of Thrones" themed mobile... this one is still un-named & Turbine is hiring production type folk: https://www.warnerbroscareers.com/search-jobs/?150967BR https://www.warnerbroscareers.com/search-jobs/?150689BR https://www.glassdoor.ca/Job/Turbine-Jobs-E34765.htm so i really couldn't say how these 2 titles are shaping up. anyone else have some insight?
  5. LasraelLarson

    How are the 2 new mobile games from Turbine shaping up?

    rather than make a brand new topic, i just thought i'd update this old thread. so while no one was looking, myself include... just before Game of Thrones Conquest Launched on October 4 2017... Turbine shuttered Batman Arkham Underworld. & in November of 2018, Warner Bros changed the Turbine moniker to Warner Bros. Games: Boston. so Turbine is gonzo & the re-dubbed studio is host to the one mobile game. that one game is doing OK though is top 20 on GOOGLE PLAY grossing games. but it is not without controversy: https://www.gameofthronesconquestlawsuit.com/ seems there may be a lot of unhappy folk out there... plenty of bad youtube plays as well, but tis mobile so what one would expect. ;) with the last season about to air (6 episodes and it is over) this title has a bit more shelf life anyway. thought it was interesting that Warner ditched the Turbine name & that that first mobile is already shit-canned. & now you all know as well. ;)
  6. the title says it all. when the Holiday period is over and the annual winter peak tapers off around January 14th @ the festival end & folk return to routines... i think it will be abundantly clear the blip these servers made had no long term impact on gains & in fact may show a loss of total players, over previous years. and here we are New Years Eve 2018-2019: so did the legendary server player shell out big bucks? or was it just another freeloading opportunity for life-timers? did they actually increase revenues? because from my view, i think it cost them in overall players, maybe though that is OK if revenues actually did increase? but a success with a long tail, nuh-uh, no way Jose. this was no triumph i'm making a note here NO success it's hard to overstate my lack of su-prise gamedev ball in chain they do what they do, because they MUST for the good of the in-vest-or to bad for you, as good as dead no sense in crying, you will keep paying til your credit runs dry, but "HEY" you wore a neat cape for this i love you... i am being so sincere right now the lights are still on and there is more milking to be done so your glad you are still alive... still alive...
  7. Mordors blip was less active than the server consolidation cycle (especially during the winter seasonal bump.) even the Free to Play launch saw roughly 5 days of activity spike and then an immediate and sharp decline till roughly the start of that years Yulefest where it leveled off for 3 weeks and than continued to decline right up until the anniversary in April followed by the spring fest. Then it dropped much slower right up until the release of Rise of Isenguard. and each major release had something similar. outside of releases, the mitigation factors tend to be festivals & the annual Christmas / New Years holiday bumps. so if you have ever wondered why they have those all the time... they do somewhat dampen the sharpness of declines post release. here is yet another graphic that absolutely highlights the November 8th 2018 Launch of Anor (and days later Ithil.) while Anor & Ithil aren't shown... it clearly & dramatically shows how the existing 10 servers were impacted. it also serves to amplify my point, that these legacy servers comprised (OVERWHELMINGLY) existing LotRO players & the new factor is illusory. the overall population did not increase beyond drawing (momentarily) back some additional former players to rubberneck for a few days. Anor & Ithils player-base came out of the existing 10 servers. the actual net gain is momentary and but a thimbleful over an above what already existed. & that momentary bump is already long gone. the bulk of the success, was nothing more than a jammed log-in system creating an artificial peak of activity. the reality is these new Legacy servers did not increase Lotro's actual player population. but the fart sniffers never see the evidence until it is too late. all that said, the population, whilst no longer growing, is also no longer rapidly declining & has been relatively stable the past 3 years. the up & down cycles are much less dramatic. so upsetting the apple-cart by adding servers confuses me... unless of course it was successful in generating revenue. even so, it isn't a good long term strategy. maybe SSG could redeem themselves and close Crickhollow! you think i say in jest? NAY! better idea than most can conceive!
  8. just some comparative charts to show things like seasonal (winter) highs as well as the drop off from previous years. & some STEAM highlights: when January's & February's info updates, i will update this second image. will be interesting to see what kind of sustain there is post Yulefest. but you can see the addition of the legacy servers bump wasn't huge by any means & much closer to the gains over the winter holidays. that is the thing though; the money generated by each lifetime push initially paid for DDO's FTP conversion & got the books in order for sale to Warner. the following lifetime subscriptions pushes either paid for Lotro's conversion, or got siphoned off for Infinite Crisis. & this latest studio wide drive by Daybreak games... probably is funding the new Planetside Battle Royal & who knows what other crooked shenanigans to clean the books of Columbus Nova & Renova's financing. in all this, the actual Devs had little choice... either than to high-tail it out of the place & find other employ.
  9. this was recorded on a phone, so quality is shaky and audio is out of sync with visual but, i had to share this! : an interesting look at 2 perspectives on the right debated.
  10. that is a pickle... does the funding push continue the existing product? seems OK in principle. does it get siphoned off for other projects? does it get used to alter existing product so it generates more revenue? does it get siphoned off to payout investors, old debts? or the multitude of other ways in which money funded alters the existing product from the way in which the funds were originally generated under? gets questionable. & that is without the specter of foreign money laundering dangling in the air. regardless the shift to pre-orders & generating funds up front, has changed the industry considerably. if there is a continuum of expectations, things usually avoid going south. but when all the shifty stuff happens, that is when it enters gray territory. Ditto! & Happy New year to everyone reading this as well. :D
  11. i also happened to be a lifetimer. i decided if i did not buy the Mirkwood pre-launch bundle, there was a really high chance i may not play LotRO again. i was done paying a sub, that much is certain. had GW2 launched at around the same time, rather than in 2012... it would have been a certitude. also only Blizzard game i have ever really spent considerable time in was Starcraft (didn't have to buy it either, so played that for free.) i have played through the campaign (offline versions) of Warcraft. i think i may have played a single match of online Warcraft 3, but i was stomped in first match and realized the learning curve all over again to become familiar and proficient & i just stuck with Starcraft. but i think by BLIZZARDs con you are referring to World of Warcraft? i have never played, not even a single second. regardless, my point wasn't to disparage Lifetimers... but rather the financials of the new servers... did they actually generate anything more than would have already come in via the original 10 servers? if no, then that is VERY bad. if yes... how much yes? and is there a yes long term? and that was my point... on that front i am VERY skeptical. and yes current subscribers could also freeload, but at the end of 30 days, or when their sub is renewed at least there is new income... but that still isn't the point. the point is how much new revenue over and beyond the regular 10 servers, did this create? because it absolutely did not create a lasting increase in the overall population. & the blip it did make, IMO, was not noteworthy. the winterfest generates as much, if not more players. but player numbers only matter to the suits if they also come with new revenue. & on that front, i am VERY skeptical. and the Daybreak studio wide push for year end funds in the sale of these big price-tag packages... yeah i don't suspect the legendary servers paid out the returns in numbers that justify their creation. & the effect over time on the population, may also exact a price.
  12. LasraelLarson


    i think a data entry point for Arkenstone may have a typo that errors on the high side @Lux Aeterna... that or someone activated a bot army cause it is 50,000 over and above the next entry, which is completely abnormal. might look something more like this, i should think? Evernight picked up the most holiday steam and looks to be most current active. (Gwaihir too.) Anor and Ithil have lost steam.
  13. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

    keep the darkness at bay. a twofer:
  14. LasraelLarson

    Recent downtime

    it seemed to me... to start up here just after Aylwen unloaded. i've noticed unusual behavior for many months now. & things got very sketchy just before it went down. i hope service providers are VERY gracious with their clients when resolving these issues, as it definitely could have a VERY negative impact on them as well. but the "BOT" problem across cyberspace, just grows exponentially. so much agenda driven fake traffic making noise to drown out actual signal.
  15. LasraelLarson

    What are you Listening to?

  16. LasraelLarson

    Merry Christmas

    Merry Christmas everyone! (a tad late) & A Happy New Year! may 2019 be even better and bring us...
  17. LasraelLarson


    looks like the start of Yule-fest has folks heading back to their regular servers. did i guess Anor and Ithil about right?
  18. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    had a nostalgic read through that old thread, just thought i'd bring the relevant statements from Aylwen here. soo yeah... prior to FTP conversion i don't think it would be overtly cynical to say DDO was not doing well. & from that, they increased revenues 3 or 5 times depending on which lecture, or announcement you source from.
  19. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    if anyone is having trouble viewing this video: https://www.gdcvault.com/play/1012237/The-Future-of-MMO-Monetization just remember most search engines have a lovely cached version feature that allows you to bypass GDC's draconian viewing restrictions without a sub. :P the point i am referring to where Paiz admits this is from 5 months worth of data is roughly at the 54-55 minute mark as he is comparing revenues Vs. subscription models: Paiz is basically using Data from the FTP beta & the period of 5 months from FTP Launch to update 3 for all of the data he is presenting to compare to Data from the months just before this period... as percentage numbers, or multiplication factors. no actual hard numbers used of course, because that would reveal that 10 times & 5 times of an actual number, while being an increase, is still relatively small potatoes for prospective investors. actual revenue went up for a period of 5 months by a factor of 5X, but 5X of what? i've seen other places in announcements where it was represented as 3X... soo there is that. ;) here i am going to reference some Lotro timelines to make my point: * DDO Unlimited (FTP launch) September 9th. 2009 * Lotro dynamic layering was added with the Launch of FTP in November 2010 * Lotro server virtualization launched with Shores of the Great River 2012. now as far as server structure is concerned DDO is an instanced based game Vs. Lotro's open world. DDO has social environments (lobbies) that act as hubs for players to interact, but no massive open world. so how it handles players isn't exactly the same as Lotro. that said... any data i have ever looked at... DDO's numbers where ALWAYS below Lotro's... VERY roughly one third too one fifth the population at any given time. THIS SITE! stopped tracking back in July 2015 now there isn't an all time chart for lotro to compare too, but even the yearly... 8 servers Vs. (at the time 2014/2015 when Lotros numbers were down significantly) 28 servers... ;) & of course there is steam: Lotro Vs. DDO also i seem to recall Aylwen mentioning on these forums Lotro Vs DDO numbers at one point... regardless, i think it is clear Lotro has drawn significantly more players. it is also the reason why DDO can get a 3X number post FTP and Lotro only got 2X. one game has a larger base to start the multiplication from (*hint, it is Lotro)
  20. Read the relevant info here: Recent Dust Up very fishy are the details. the about face from Daybreak on previous statements regarding Columbus Nova... the potential for legal jeopardy... this is very likely going to get messy. hard to not see a negative impact down the chain of companies tied too. only real question is how much time before the shit hits the fan? the internet never forgets: https://forums.daybreakgames.com/soe/index.php?threads/sony-online-entertainment-becomes-daybreak-game-company.11500068269/
  21. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    yes, it is all about revenue... i do not know the actual financials of Battlefield, whether it was in the red forcing closure, or heading too causing a shutter before losses hit. here is what i do know about these bullshit artists like Ben Cousins & all these huckster Conferees spewing their bile... they polish turds. in the case with Battlefield Heroes, the game launched June 25th 2009 & shuttered completely July 14th 2015. that is a shelf life of 6 years and almost 3 weeks. in the video i linked to previously, Ben Cousins uses a period of 2 months, or 60 days highlighting the period just before the transition in the game model to aggressive micro-transactions & selling all kinds of power in game. now with the above slight of hand graphs, please note this: * daily gross funding revenue is absent any actual monetary figures. (approximately double of what from the previous 30 days to the following 30 days?) * active daily users is missing any actual numbers. (is it 700 - 900 daily users? 7000 - 9000? 70,000 - 90,000?) there is one more set of data charts with a slightly longer period of activity: of note: * New Monthly Users spike (April 2009 - June 2009 right around the launch on the 25th.) is the betas where they gave invites through various avenues. there is an immediate drop of new post official launch. * monthly churn, every time the graph line drops, more people are joining than leaving. when it goes up, more are leaving than joining. Ben Cousins argues that this shows player-base stability with normal summer drops and winter upticks, based off what is a severe drop post launch... but just look at September 2010 - January 2011 on the monthly churn (lots leaving) & the dip of monthly users the last 3 months during winter. he is full of shite. now if the data was still good for the 4 years post this presentation, why isn't it shown somewhere as follow-up? & why did EA pull the plug in July of 2015? one thing i do know, user numbers were in the tank by that point. this game had no actual user number growth post beta, beyond the first few months of milking a diminishing pool of existing players for a higher Average Revenue Per User. an ARPU not sustainable long term. fucking Paiz... i hadn't seen this particular video, but no surprises. Fernando even admits in the video, the Data he is presenting is only from 5 months from the FTP beta & launch. 5 damn months. DDO Launched on February 28th 2006 with 14 American servers. plus 5 EU servers run by CodeMasters. On July 23rd. 2007 those 14 American Servers merged down to 5. in 2009 the EU servers closed & EU players were able to migrate to the 5 US servers. https://ddowiki.com/page/Server_merge yet when DDO Unlimited launched as FTP it was still the same 5 servers. so how does one add 1 million new users, get 20% of returning players, but still only need 5 servers? another bullshit artist. i viewed the slideshow & then went looking for other presentations by Adam Tefler... i smell a steaming pile of malarkey. a heaping of bloody obvious, with regurgitation of the same rubbish of the previous 2 carnies. non of these charlatan clowns have hit the mass market. yet they talk as if they had. ... more the fool who listen?
  22. LasraelLarson

    Questions asked and answered

    ah what a good opportunity for a nice link... GDC 2011: i don't know if this particular vid is what you are referring? but the above faggot is one of the key figures behind the whole industry change & to whom Fernando fellate... referenced longingly. if it isn't that video specifically, i'd bet it is from Ben Cousins regardless. a real special piece of work that one. Battlefield heroes had a real decent player base & while it wasn't earning a high enough revenue per user to satisfy suits, it was far from losing money as this asshat states. it was still operating in the green, just not enough to siphon off enough money short term. so they made the change & initially there was a brief bump in revenues, however as things progressed, the user base declined & so do those revenues. we must inform you, that on Tuesday July 14th 2015 we will be closing Battlefield Heroes for good and stopping the service in its entirety." so a popular game FTP with micro-transactions was supposed to save, (I can't emphasis enough that the game was not in red territory prior to shift) ended up closing. the man is cancer.
  23. LasraelLarson


    THIS is awesome! everything is clear again & Crickhollow data is back: the pie chart is equally clear now. :D THANK YOU AGRA! so Ithil is @ 10% of NA log ins & Anor @ 16%. Brandywine & Crickholow are both @18% ahead of Anor by a hair.
  24. LasraelLarson

    Legendary™ Servers

    welp i think this makes it a month of Sundays (generally speaking Sunday tends to be the peak for the week) & here is how the high point of the week looks one month in... combine the 2 at the weeks high point, roughly 1000 player concurrency... hasn't been a log queue this, or the previous week. i've heard somewhere transfers between the 2 are free for the rest of December? not that i have played on either, but right about now i'd be considering moving from Ithil too Anor, if i was... never know when it will be free again...