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karac avalron

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karac avalron last won the day on January 30

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About karac avalron

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  1. Whomever is now employed who wasnt prior. Many non partisan reporting outlets, like the ADP national employment report https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ has shown month after month of job growth. Im not sure how job growth translates into only a handful of people benefiting but I will read with great anticipation your non biased and non partisan reply. 😀
  2. karac avalron


    Thats interesting because the narrative we get in the states is either he is a homophobic bigot or he is a oppressed journalist. I suspect its not a huge loss to not hear from him much anymore.
  3. karac avalron


    Well does this mean we've heard the last of Tommy Robinson? We watch him from across the pond, what a curious individual this process has bred.
  4. May 21–25 Libertarian party will nominate/select their ticket. Here's hoping we get someone better than Gary Johnson this time around and can actually make a go at a viable 3rd party in the U.S. The democrats and republicans have fucked this country up nearly beyond repair. At least Trump is entertaining but governance is important and there are many issues we need action on. Thank god the economy is doing well, in spite of all the shennanigans.
  5. I know right, like all those people who said trump couldnt win... The funniest thing that could happen is if Trump didnt take Biden seriously and Biden won. For me the last 3 years have been awesome watching liberals cry, 4 years of conservative tears would be awesome.
  6. Clearly your expectations are way higher than mine. I have no love for Trump, but I simply cant categorize him has this horrific monster others seem to (not saying your one of them BTW). I mean in my life time most of the republican presidents have either started or escalated wars (Nixon, Regan, Bush, Bush jr) the only two who didnt were Ford and Trump. That doesnt make him any less corrupt though, but we have a whole slew of presidents to chose from on both sides that were corrupt to the core. I agree with you on the reckoning at the ballot box, but after 2016 I simply refuse to believe the loudest voices in the room anymore. I look at real clear politics website, it aggregates national polls, hundreds of them and Trumps approval/support remains steady between 40-45%. That's not a lot of wiggle room for someone to dethrone him. Nothing would make me happier than a coherent strong democratic nominee who had a liberal vision for the country, but as of now im not seeing it. In terms of indictments after leaving office, I recall democrats saying the same thing about Bush, and republicans saying the same thing about Clinton. Im not saying it wont happen, but proclaiming someone is a criminal is one thing, proving it is another matter entirely, proving it beyond a reasonable doubt, on a former president is nearly beyond the pale. As a hopeful libertarian I try and be as pragmatic as I can, I dont see how any of this helps the country. The last thing I want to do in 2021 after he loses (if he does) is spent MORE time talking about Donald Trump. I'd like to move on, so would a lot of people.
  7. Future presidents can now be impeached much easier then in the past. The bar for engaging in treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors has been lowered significantly. Trump is guilty, you would have to be a complete naive to think he didnt try and use aid as leverage to get dirt on Biden, I mean thats what Trump does. You would also have to be a naive to think that Trump is the only president to do this, or will be the last to do so. This wasnt the final battle though, the 2020 election is the knockout blow if the democrats can parlay this into momentum with voters. We'll see.
  8. I am always fascinated by the staggering amount of missteps Turbine made (and now SSG) over the years with the game. Im equally fascinated by the fact that the game continues on, still producing expansions and people play. I know "there less people now !!!!!!!!!!!!" the cry goes out but I was on Arkenstone last night, plenty of people in my view. Clearly thats not 24-7 but for this title and the amount of crap they have spewed out over the years to have retained this many people is amazing. I suppose its fashionable to claim those people (myself included, I do still play) as idiots but I try not to begrudge people their entertainment choices. This article is more an indictment of what LOTRO evolved into and some of the opportunities it squandered. Its a social/casual game at best for the majority really logging in because they have for years. Yet if we go back a bit in LOTRO's past there were real missed opportunities to nurture the raid community and PVP. Had they made those a closer to equal partner in the development cycle the game may look a lot different today in terms of player base. For me the worse part is as a Tolkien fan, I see a very good game run by a less than stellar company.
  9. we disagree on radical 35 seats is an 8% swing, I think its possible, however unlikely but Im not here to quibble really. My overarching point is that the election will likely sort things out, everyone has had their say except the american people. You and I are on the same page for a 3rd party. Ive voted Libertarian the last few elections and in 2016 they had a shot to really push 5%+ had they not picked Gary Johnson who was an absolutely travesty of a candidate. Frankly Im surprised more on the far left havent splintered to their own party or taken over the greens. People like AOC, Bernie et al have done a remarkable job of branding and would certainly be able to muster a 5-10 % of the vote in 2020 IMHO. I think its one of Bernie's biggest failings, that he didnt start a 3rd party after 16, it was all lined up for him he had national name recognition, a hard core base of fans, on the ground infrastructure and a donation apparatus other candidates would die for. Anyway thanks for the chat, take care.
  10. Yes Dershowitz has tarnished himself, it was a poorly worded argument at best. Regarding more investigations, there is the small matter of the election which is coming sooner rather than later. Washington in classic form has operated in a bubble, again. Both sides seem to be pandering to a base of voters that doesnt account for the majority. This isnt completely a new phenom because you always start with your base but demographics are changing fast. As an example, I had a chat with a die hard conservative who told me "Texas will always be a red state". I then explained to him the curious case of California who up until 1992 had gone republican in every election save 1964. The point here is washington and the presumption of washington action is static. They seem to operate in this never ending Dem V republican regardless of what the rest of the country wants. It's high likely that the legislative branch flips again, either the house of the senate and possibly the executive. 2020 should be a highly mobilized vote, many people on both sides are vulnerable so the presumption that more investigations happen, assumes that democrats retain the house. That might not occur. It's also possible that the senate flips as well and not only does another impeachment happen but it is ratified by the new democratic senate on a reelected President Trump. We'll see.
  11. The entire process is wrought with constitutional issues, which Trump will likely have legal recourse to challenge. I operate under the assumption he is guilty as all politicians are corrupt to some degree, and nothing I have seen so far is precedent setting given the many other shennanigans that have gone on in washington. The main constitutional issue Trump has as his fall back (thats assuming the senate convicts which is unlikely) is Senators are required to take an oath for the impeachment trial, I believe this is in Clause 6 in the constitution under Article 1. This oath requires all senators to uphold impartial justice, which seems dubious given 3 senators are running for the nomination of the opposing party to replace Trump. Their interests conflict clearly with this mandate and that alone is a basis for Trump to argue the validity of those 3 votes, again assuming that there are enough votes to convict him in this matter. I think Trump is a blowhard and a snake oil salesman but based on what he has done so far he's been a better than average president. I think the real issue here is not the narrative that the democrats want to undo 2016, but they are acutely aware that they dont have a good platform or candidate for 2020. Trump went populist in 2016, a very simple message meant to appeal to masses and it worked. The question the democrats arent answering is why did it work? They are attacking the pied piper and not understanding why his tune got so many to flock to his banner. Many of the same working class people that voted for Obama voted for Trump for the same reason, they want washington to dial back globalism. This talk of 3d chess being played by Trump is laughable, he's a populist, and populists always succeed when they time the message right.
  12. Biden will get the Democratic nomination. The process to get the nomination is governed (largely) by the democratic national committee. In U.S. politics, once you get the nomination most candidates swing back to the middle, biden can do that quicker than the rest due to his decades in politics. You've got about 30-40% of the electorate (less so now perhaps) that switches parties regularly. As an example I've voted both dem and republican in the past as at various periods I thought the other could do a better job. Biden has been near or at the top of polling for democrats since before he declared officially. I dont think its going to make much difference though, I dont see Trump losing. It's been non stop negative press on Trump for 3 years and his approvals ratings still hover 40-45%, any other president in history with this kind of negative press would be in much worse shape. If the economy keeps humming along Trump should be okay. I think it will be another case of he wins the electoral college but not the popular vote.
  13. There have been predictions of the demise of LOTRO for nearly a decade since it went F2P. I think Amenhir is spot on, when the end is near, it will be a week or two notice. The fact they are still producing content/expansions suggests there is profit, unless their accountants are complete idiots.
  14. Ya thats a great point, the whole loot box crap. Its prevalent in other games like Elder Scrolls Online etc. I mean LOTRO has a slot machine you can play every log in with hobbit presents. Its not coincidental it shares the appearance and visual aspects of a slot machine. It would be devious if it wasnt blatantly obvious as to what it was meant to represent.
  15. Hello I am new to these forums but not the game. I think there is some truth to this statement but there is also another type of whale that plays LOTRO, thats the adult with disposable income. I wont suppose to know the % of how many players are this type of player, but I can confirm personal knowledge of at least 8. As an example, there is a guy I play LOTRO with on Anor, we talk alot in discord. Frank is a 54 year old attorney, frank claims he made 350K in 2019. Video games are his hobby, he told me he spent 1,000.00 U.S. on LOTRO last year. I was floored, I pay VIP but It would never enter into my wildest spending thoughts to spend that much on LOTRO. I make a decent living (less than frank) but 1,000.00? Nah. Frank and I talked it out, as he explained it to me he spent .29% of his income on this game, yes thats less than a half percent of his income. Now I only know this guy from gaming he could be full of shit but I suspect there are more then the 8 or so people that I know that fall in this category. I would concede its the minority but I suspect the average player would have to be spending far more than the VIP a year. I mean they just did an expansion, have to pay for a studio etc. Now I understand DDO plays a roll her, its likely they combine the revenues of both games to sustain the one studio but how many "franks" are there out there?
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