Jump to content
LOTROCommunity

Betting pool for HD launch


Darmokk
 Share

Recommended Posts

Time for the smartasses to put some bets on file.

#1) do you think they will attempt to launch HD tomorrow or will there be another excuse? "Tomorrow" is defined as Wednesday EST until midnight for starting the upgrade (taking down the old world).

#2) do you think it will succeed? How likely is it that their incompetence is now big enough that they will have to reopen the worlds with the old code one more time while they fiddle?

#3) how many hours or days of downtime before either code (from #2) is back up, beginning from whenever #1, the launch attempt, might happen (whether you correctly predict or not). The beginning time is defined as when they take down the game for the upgrade.

#4) will big battles be closed, and if so how far from the game-up time? Pick between zero (already disabled when launching) and anything you like. For this condition to trigger half or more of the BBs need to remain closed for more than 8 hours before they re-open.

Extra condition: even if they don't attempt to re-open old code, #2 is automatically assumed "not succeeded" if more than 72 hours pass without a majority of people able to play (let's say Friday evening midnight EST).

If you want you can just post "Total fail" which means > 72 hours downtime and you win.

b54d352ef4ac12e283f6a670c54834d565e67c0f

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My bet

#1) I think they will attempt. Corporate structure will override everything else.

#2) I don't think they will roll back to old code under any circumstances. No matter what it takes to launch something, anything with the new code.

#3) I expect 36 hours until there is a playable state, sometime Thursday. At that time various things might still be closed waiting for hotfixes.

ETA: #4) I think they will close some new stuff as they find reward leaks but it will affect less than half of BBs. I think they will leave > 50% up even with major problems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#1) They will attempt to patch.

 

#2) No chance that they will roll back. That does not mean that the new code will be playable. I excpect at least 2 classes to be more or less unplayable broken.

 

#3) I tend more to a 24 hours frame. After that time big battles will be open for a maximum of 48 hours until they are closed until the first hotfix is ready.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#3) I tend more to a 24 hours frame. After that time big battles will be open for a maximum of 48 hours until they are closed until the first hotfix is ready.

Actually, Garbalas, now that you mention it, I added the BB disabling as option #4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1.) they will attempt to patch

 

2.) No chance of a rollback, no matter what.

 

3.) 18 hours to a playable state.

 

Bonus prediction:  HD will launch with at least 1, let's say 2 total, of the Epic Battles locked till they are ready for prime time.  <---- Edited to add: oops, not bonus, just plain old 4.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My predictions:

 

It will lauch wednesday and the servers will be down for about 5 hours, but after 3 hours there will be another downtime because their new excuse for a endgame no longer works. Thursday there will be yet another downtime for a hotfix, but some epic battles still refuse to work.

Sapience will then make a rude post and come up with excuses explain that some of the new epic battles will not be available for some timeTM

 

Days will turn into weeks and at some point turbine will manage to get the final missing instances working. By the time the next expansion is out unless WB pulled the plug the issues will return but nobody will bother to fix them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. They will definitely try to patch.

2. They will never go back to the old code, more's the pity. But not because they 'succeeded'. Nor because they're competent.  More likely because they're stubborn.

3. My guess is that it'll be next week before the game is playable... by their standards. It will never be truly playable again by mine.

4. Big battles? We'll be lucky (?) to see them by Christmas.  But Sapience will likely come up with a good reason why it's all our fault. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There will be serious problems. Many players will not be able to play. It will take them 2 more days to get it working - if they are lucky. Else we are looking at next week before everyone can play.

 

Big Buggles will have some major flaws. Intensive farming will happen. They will later nerf all loot to the dismay of anyone who did not join the farming chains. Because now the farmers will have excellent loot that others can only grind and pray they get randomly after months of grind.

 

Several of the Big Buggles will be shut down for a while.

 

Forum members will thank Turbine for their hard work, tell them to hang in there, tell everyone how hard development is, and savagely attack anyone complaining about the problems, bringing in the victims of the latest natural disaster to belittle anyone for caring about a game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#1) do you think they will attempt to launch HD tomorrow or will there be another excuse? "Tomorrow" is defined as Wednesday EST until midnight for starting the upgrade (taking down the old world). Yes

#2) do you think it will succeed? How likely is it that their incompetence is now big enough that they will have to reopen the worlds with the old code one more time while they fiddle? Yes, it will eventually be playable without rolling back. WB and Turbine will never return to the pre-HD code, it would be admitting defeat.

#3) how many hours or days of downtime before either code (from #2) is back up, beginning from whenever #1, the launch attempt, might happen (whether you correctly predict or not). The beginning time is defined as when they take down the game for the upgrade. 72 hours from initial start of downtime for patch to mostly-playable state. This includes at least 12 hours of actual downtime for the patch, plus another couple of days where the servers are not stable, the bugs are causing players to crash, and other sundry horrific things are occurring.

#4) will big battles be closed, and if so how far from the game-up time? Pick between zero (already disabled when launching) and anything you like. For this condition to trigger half or more of the BBs need to remain closed for more than 8 hours before they re-open. I believe Epic Battles will be one of the more likely sources for game-breaking bugs, and they will be pulled off-line for several days to a week, in order to get the game running.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One big change that I expect, and that influenced my prediction. Previously if they had "reward leaks", aka exploitable content that gave rewards and/or gold at unintended rates they would shut down that part of the game. This time I think they are more launching for the benefit of the big boys at WB, rewards well who cares and in any case the game is flooded is with gold anyway. So I think they will keep things up longer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I honestly at this point have no idea. I think it'll launch, and patch - and people will have issues (except some for whom it'll mysteriously install itself and apply febreeze in the toilet at the same time to cover any smells).

 

I think that BB will be a problem, and that some will launch closed. I think that after a week, some major fail will be exposed that allowed people to either A) farm things they weren't supposed too from either BB or an 85 instance, and/or B) cause a huge graphical glitch that will make the existing BB's unplayable.

 

I can also forsee a massive fail on 1/2/all classes, that will be to do with either DPS, healing or both that will be either a 100% unintentional nerf, or OP. It will render the class unplayable at worst, or cause Wargs everywhere to spontaneously combust from interwebs rage.

 

I also predict that all fanbois will explode from pent up fangasms from the sheer amount of bullshit and tomfuckery on the offical forums - so much so, that one of them will be banned by accident in the next week - causing Sap a rectal prolapse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. They will launch wednesday

2. They will succeed

3. I think they will need around 8 hours between, so from 6:00 AM till ~2:00 PM to launch

4. Yeah, i think 1 will be closed at launch and 2 more in the next 72 hours

 

I also think a hotfix will be rolled out friday and another hotfix/patch the week after that after which it will be fairly stable running

 

As far as I can remember they never completely crashed the game during an update; They may be destroying gameplay/classes with this update, but I don't think they destroy the game client. It will take at least a month and 2/3 hotfixes and a patch before it will be running stable again (stable = running as it did last months), especially big battles. But launch 'succesfully' it will

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. They will launch wednesday

2. They will succeed

3. I think they will need around 8 hours between, so from 6:00 AM till ~2:00 PM to launch

QFT

 

4. BB will launch as is, and some will be taken down next week. Or much simpler : BB won't be taken down for a few months and then they will be "improved" at the end of january.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not quite. They have the patching up and running. So far it's looking good for them.

I wonder whether I should check what the new code version is like in gdb. Surely that evaluation can be done and bring accurate results even before the servers come up, right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well the patching has run smoothly, I am finished

Mine will take a while since the line is also busy downloading gw2 :D

ETA: also updating STW at the same. STO update failed in some garbage "file locked" error so no deal there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#2) do you think it will succeed? How likely is it that their incompetence is now big enough that they will have to reopen the worlds with the old code one more time while they fiddle?

 

Won't happen under any cirmumstances, even if majority of players would stop to play in coming weeks / months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...