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Your 2014 LOTRO Predictions?


Elderban
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Housing will see an update by the end of 2014, but it will not be what most players were looking for, and flop dramatically.

 

Despite not having an expansion in 2014, Turbine will fail to live up to their quarterly update schedule.

 

Every aspect of the current game that Turbine revamps along the way will have monetization baked into them.

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My predictions:

  1. We will get a new zone in March, free to VIP's.
  2. New instance(s) will be released with the March update. But, all players will have to pay for them. VIP's will be told to be content with the new zone they got for free.
  3. Housing revamps will happen, but it will be HEAVILY monetized. Purchasing houses will most likely require RMT in the form of MC's, or - like the price tag on storage - will cost a few hundred gold to purchase with in-game money.
  4. Like TMT said, Turbine will fail to live up to their quarterly schedule. Either that, or - like HD - they will release it buggy just to get it out on time and then release patches after the fact (which will still be buggy).
  5. A new class will be revealed, but all players will have to pay to use it, and since they aren't coming out with an expansion, the cost of the new class will come in at the low end of an expansion price (~3000 TP, $30 US or 375 MC).
  6. We will never see the older zone revamps (North Downs, Angmar, Trollshaws, etc.)
  7. Turbine will go back on yet another of its mantras and start selling armor and weapons in the store.
  8. Pets? What pets?
  9. More skills will be removed in order to force players to purchase their equivalent in the store.
  10. We will see more and more in-game items costing Mithril Coins.
  11. Eventually everything in the store will be able to be purchased in-game, and the store will eventually be phased out (long term).
  12. Turbine or WB will fire Kate Paiz sometime in 2014. I'm thinking Q1 or Q2.
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All the new features will be delayed, then delayed some more and probably around christmas (when the last hobbit movie launches) the big money grab will start.

Probably a "in their absence" update with a bunch of small instances, but more lazy and boring.

 

The playerbase will slowly dwindle, while the forum trolls will continue to babble how great the game is doing and that their mains will probably have finished questing in Evendim by the end of the year.

 

Housing will be a success though, tons of new ways to decorate your house but the prices will make even the valar cry.

 

/Edit:

I wouldn't be surprised to hear more staff got fired. 

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I predict - no instances at all in 2014. I am sure they have not even started any - so it is impossible for them to be ready before summer - but I think they will just not make any. The "new content" will be only small new zones, with decent landscape, and unoriginal quests - which everyone will have to pay for.

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I really can't say.

Let's leave aside that Turbine has been openly lying. That alone makes it very difficult to base on prediction on the letter.

In theory, a small select group of programmers doing bugfixes instead of huge, not working, not fun new subsystems, a small select group of designers doing select landscaping and giving VIP at least *something* is exactly what I want.

But how should be know that they do that, that some effort is put into bugfixing?

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I think they will update more of the big battles to have more 3/6/12-player big battles.

 

Because that way they will have new 'instances'/ end-game content, that is locked behind money. If you haven't bought the xpac, you can't play them.

 

I guess the quarterly updates can be managed. I don't believe building regions is very programmer-intensive, because they build regions for years already, they just have to use the tools and they make the same type of quests also for years already.

 

Things that take a lot of time and produce bugs are new game systems/ overhauls of systems.

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1. All the quarterly content updates will be delayed with atleast one month.

2. Only two of them will contain new landmasses, the other two will be revamps.

3. Housing revamp will be underwhelming and monetized

4. No new instance cluster. There may be one or two 3 and 6-mans in the quarterlies, but no raids.

5. A few of the BBs will be converted to support more sizes

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Orcs will ravage the land, Legolas and Gimili will finally confess their undying love for each other, the mead hall in Snowbourn will be turned into a nightclub (10 mithril coins to get in), the beacon at Eaworth will be burnt down by a mob of drunken elves,  the Shire will finally get its first pipeweed rehab centre, Moria will get electric lighting installed, Glorfindel will run out of hope and a dwarvern soprano choir will sing at the West Gate of Bree.

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Predictions? A few bugs will be fixed. Some more landscape, leading towards Gondor will be added. Maybe with a side-story like Wildermore. One or two small instances will be added. There will be a housing update, giving more slots or free placement of a limited number of items. I'll like it but it won't provide every option I want.

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I'm not sure whether Turbine will be able to pull any of this off, but here are my predictions:

 

March: The Fall of Isengard and Ents vs. Orcs will debut as two new epic battles. They will be free to VIPs or permanently unlockable via the store (or perhaps mithril coins).

 

June: The Trollshaws will have its quests revamped as a straightforward level 30-40 zone. Its price will increase to match Evendim. The inventory system will be reworked to use a vault-style UI. Additional inventory storage will be purchasable, probably with mithril coins. A new short-duration special festival (like Farmers Faire or Treasure Hunt) will be added, with a heavy emphasis on mithril coins. 

 

September: The housing update will consist of a new Rohan-themed homestead, available only as a premium purchase. It will use the existing decorations and hooks system, but might have more of them. Kinships may be given the choice to purchase entire neighborhoods and assign homes to members. A series of epic quest interludes will take us briefly into Gondor in session play. (Perhaps some of the rangers have made their way there.)

 

December: We can choose to visit either the Paths of the Dead or the Dead Marshes tracing the footsteps of Aragorn/Legolas/Gimli or Frodo/Sam/Gollum. Character downscaling is added. It will be for limited durations, sort of like skirmish soldiers on the landscape, and can be extended with mithril coins. Character upscaling will be added for freeps in the Ettenmoors, with a similar cost.

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1. All the quarterly content updates will be delayed with atleast one month.

No, the bag and housing update will be delivered on-time. Whether this is really a content update will be heavily debated and strongly defended by the usual suspects.

2. Only two of them will contain new landmasses, the other two will be revamps.

This get my vote, with the caveat that I agree with Fredelas quoted below.

3. Housing revamp will be underwhelming and monetized

This goes without saying.

4. No new instance cluster. There may be one or two 3 and 6-mans in the quarterlies, but no raids.

It's really sad, but I don't foresee a "classical" instance before the summer at least.

5. A few of the BBs will be converted to support more sizes

This isn't even worth mentionning (who cares ?).

 

 

March: The Fall of Isengard and Ents vs. Orcs will debut as two new epic battles. They will be free to VIPs or permanently unlockable via the store (or perhaps mithril coins).

Yes, I can imagine an offensive Big Battle. Of course you will need to have HD to use them, and buy with points unless you are a VIP.

June: The Trollshaws will have its quests revamped as a straightforward level 30-40 zone. Its price will increase to match Evendim. The inventory system will be reworked to use a vault-style UI. Additional inventory storage will be purchasable, probably with mithril coins. A new short-duration special festival (like Farmers Faire or Treasure Hunt) will be added, with a heavy emphasis on mithril coins.

Not sure about Trollshaws, but I can agree with the rest. 

 

September: The housing update will consist of a new Rohan-themed homestead, available only as a premium purchase. It will use the existing decorations and hooks system, but might have more of them. Kinships may be given the choice to purchase entire neighborhoods and assign homes to members. A series of epic quest interludes will take us briefly into Gondor in session play. (Perhaps some of the rangers have made their way there.)

Ok.

 

December: We can choose to visit either the Paths of the Dead or the Dead Marshes tracing the footsteps of Aragorn/Legolas/Gimli or Frodo/Sam/Gollum. Character downscaling is added. It will be for limited durations, sort of like skirmish soldiers on the landscape, and can be extended with mithril coins. Character upscaling will be added for freeps in the Ettenmoors, with a similar cost.

Downscaling to the level you want to be would be awesome. Upscaling in the moors is quite straightforward since it is similar to what happens in big battles, I think it might happen much sooner than that (remember that freeps in the moors have to be VIPs). Be prepared thought to earn zero xp while in the moors (it would break the levelling).
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Orcs will ravage the land, Legolas and Gimili will finally confess their undying love for each other, the mead hall in Snowbourn will be turned into a nightclub (10 mithril coins to get in), the beacon at Eaworth will be burnt down by a mob of drunken elves,  the Shire will finally get its first pipeweed rehab centre, Moria will get electric lighting installed, Glorfindel will run out of hope and a dwarvern soprano choir will sing at the West Gate of Bree.

 

These predictions are certainly the most interesting ones here. :-)

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I predict that the peak of entertainment in LOTRO will continue to be watching the trainwreck through the eyes of the forum.

 

I think their big surprise is this: drop sub rates to one really low price for everyone. And some serious "promises" of what the game's direction and content is, and how it smells so rosy. Get everyone on a month to month model. Let that run for 60+ days. Then all of a sudden subs are turned off completely. No word on what is going on. That will be the last month the servers are open and will coincide with a C&D from Tolkien and a WB settlement maneuver.

 

And the fanbois will invade this forum in their search for a replacement to their PvP arena over there.

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I doubt they will manage a release every 3 months

 

The housing update will be a big let down

 

PVE will still not be balanced well. PvP will most likely be worse

 

I think the 'surprise' could be cosmetic weapons/shields

 

The new landscape content will be fairly well done

 

No new group content or raids.

 

Certain posters on the official forums will continue to annoy me

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Too many variables and each variable relies on the one before it.

For example, March will come with a content update. Players will assume this is a new zone. Turbine will reveal nearer to the time that it's nothing but another book and hastily thrown together.

OR

Turbine will release a new zone, but it will be delayed. When it is released, it will be shoddy and full of dailies.

Either option will create a different chain of events.

What I do feel is certain is that SOMEHOW Turbine will:

- Make some buggy, tedious 'content'

- Stretch the term 'content' to its limits

- Fail to remain on schedule

- Screw over the playerbase in some way

- Avoid their commitment to 4 content updates in 2014 (like when they didn't give us a content update last March because they decided instead to release a very delayed bit of the expansion and some scaling of old content in its place).

- Blame any issues on their scapegoats

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I'm not sure whether Turbine will be able to pull any of this off, but here are my predictions:

 

March: The Fall of Isengard and Ents vs. Orcs will debut as two new epic battles. They will be free to VIPs or permanently unlockable via the store (or perhaps mithril coins).

 

June: The Trollshaws will have its quests revamped as a straightforward level 30-40 zone. Its price will increase to match Evendim. The inventory system will be reworked to use a vault-style UI. Additional inventory storage will be purchasable, probably with mithril coins. A new short-duration special festival (like Farmers Faire or Treasure Hunt) will be added, with a heavy emphasis on mithril coins. 

 

September: The housing update will consist of a new Rohan-themed homestead, available only as a premium purchase. It will use the existing decorations and hooks system, but might have more of them. Kinships may be given the choice to purchase entire neighborhoods and assign homes to members. A series of epic quest interludes will take us briefly into Gondor in session play. (Perhaps some of the rangers have made their way there.)

 

December: We can choose to visit either the Paths of the Dead or the Dead Marshes tracing the footsteps of Aragorn/Legolas/Gimli or Frodo/Sam/Gollum. Character downscaling is added. It will be for limited durations, sort of like skirmish soldiers on the landscape, and can be extended with mithril coins. Character upscaling will be added for freeps in the Ettenmoors, with a similar cost.

 

 

Now, are you just guessing here or do you have inside info...? :*)

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Since Turbine do as Fredelas says, then this is what we are getting giggle.gif

 

Hmm. Let's see if this really works the way you think it does. Maybe if I make it really big, it will come true!

 

VIPs will receive a 10 Mithril Coin allowance every month, in addition to the 500 Turbine Points they already receive monthly.

 

Edit: This could actually be implemented so it doesn't accrue over time. VIP players could do a quest with a 30-day cooldown in Thorin's Hall that rewards 10 Mithril Coins. (Or it could just be a remotely bestowed quest.) That way, Turbine isn't rewarding subscribers (including lifetimers) who don't bother to log in at least once a month.

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