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LasraelLarson

So it turns out the Legendary servers arren't actually a huge success

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the title says it all.

when the Holiday period is over and the annual winter peak tapers off around January 14th @ the festival end & folk return to routines...

i think it will be abundantly clear the blip these servers made had no long term impact on gains & in fact may show a loss of total players, over previous years.

image.png.d0e07d7d0468e668b74965b2d45490a9.png

image.png.0cd0ca836ca65f2855e01ed8a810f411.png

and here we are New Years Eve 2018-2019:

image.png.bd6b247ce5249d35b25f7b35ccd0a5ee.png

 

so did the legendary server player shell out big bucks?  or was it just another freeloading opportunity for life-timers?  did they actually increase revenues?

because from my view, i think it cost them in overall players, maybe though that is OK if revenues actually did increase?

but a success with a long tail, nuh-uh, no way Jose.

 

this was no triumph

i'm making a note here

NO success

it's hard to overstate my

lack of su-prise

gamedev ball in chain

they do what they do, because they MUST

for the good of the in-vest-or

to bad for you, as good as dead

no sense in crying, you will keep paying

til your credit runs dry, but "HEY" you wore a neat cape

 

for this i love you...

 

i am being so sincere right now

 

the lights are still on

and there is more milking to be done

so your glad you are

still alive...

 

still alive...

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3 hours ago, Woeg said:

fwiw - lifetimers are not freeloaders - they paid while the rest of you were still sucked in by Blizzards con

i also happened to be a lifetimer.  i decided if i did not buy the Mirkwood pre-launch bundle, there was a really high chance i may not play LotRO again.  i was done paying a sub, that much is certain.  had GW2 launched at around the same time, rather than in 2012...  it would have been a certitude.

also only Blizzard game i have ever really spent considerable time in was Starcraft (didn't have to buy it either, so played that for free.)

i have played through the campaign (offline versions) of Warcraft.  i think i may have played a single match of online Warcraft 3, but i was stomped in first match and realized the learning curve all over again to become familiar and proficient & i just stuck with Starcraft.

but i think by BLIZZARDs con you are referring to World of Warcraft?  i have never played, not even a single second.

regardless, my point wasn't to disparage Lifetimers...  but rather the financials of the new servers...   did they actually generate anything more than would have already come in via the original 10 servers?  if no, then that is VERY bad.  if yes...

how much yes?  and is there a yes long term?

and that was my point...   on that front i am VERY skeptical.

and yes current subscribers could also freeload, but at the end of 30 days, or when their sub is renewed at least there is new income...  but that still isn't the point.

the point is how much new revenue over and beyond the regular 10 servers, did this create?

because it absolutely did not create a lasting increase in the overall population.  & the blip it did make, IMO, was not noteworthy.  the winterfest generates as much, if not more players.

but player numbers only matter to the suits if they also come with new revenue.  & on that front, i am VERY skeptical.

and the Daybreak studio wide push for year end funds in the sale of these big price-tag packages...  yeah i don't suspect the legendary servers paid out the returns in numbers that justify their creation.  & the effect over time on the population, may also exact a price.

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9 minutes ago, LasraelLarson said:

my point wasn't to disparage Lifetimers.

Then we are pretty much in agreement on all these points 🙂  I find the asshats and clowns on the official forums that disparage lifetimers total boars in most cases with their head inserted somewhere where there is no sunlight to be found

Whether a company offering lifetime subs is a good idea - that's a much different story 

 

Thanks very much for the clarification and Happy New Year !

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54 minutes ago, Woeg said:

Whether a company offering lifetime subs is a good idea - that's a much different story

that is a pickle...  does the funding push continue the existing product?  seems OK in principle.

does it get siphoned off for other projects?  does it get used to alter existing product so it generates more revenue?  does it get siphoned off to payout investors, old debts?  or the multitude of other ways in which money funded alters the existing product from the way in which the funds were originally generated under?  gets questionable.

& that is without the specter of foreign money laundering dangling in the air.

regardless the shift to pre-orders & generating funds up front, has changed the industry considerably.

if there is a continuum of expectations, things usually avoid going south.  but when all the shifty stuff happens, that is when it enters gray territory.

1 hour ago, Woeg said:

Thanks very much for the clarification and Happy New Year !

Ditto!

& Happy New year to everyone reading this as well.  :D

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On 12/31/2018 at 12:33 PM, Woeg said:

fwiw - lifetimers are not freeloaders - they paid while the rest of you were still sucked in by Blizzards con

Don't pat yourself on the back too much you might break your arm.

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On 12/31/2018 at 6:26 PM, LasraelLarson said:

that is a pickle...  does the funding push continue the existing product?  seems OK in principle.

I think that's a huge problem when you try to convert a P2P MMO into a F2P one, as that lifer because a millstone because you've given a chunk of your playerbase free VIP for life.

IMO, LotRO should have stayed as P2P and...

On 12/31/2018 at 6:26 PM, LasraelLarson said:

does it get siphoned off for other projects?  does it get used to alter existing product so it generates more revenue?  does it get siphoned off to payout investors, old debts?  or the multitude of other ways in which money funded alters the existing product from the way in which the funds were originally generated under?  gets questionable.

All of the money generated by LotRO should have either stayed in LotRO, or gone into merging the MMO backends for DDO and LotRO so that Turbine only really has one MMO with two different mods to maintain.

But that makes too much sense for Turbine to have done, and something beyond the ability (or lack thereof) of SSG.

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just some comparative charts to show things like seasonal (winter) highs as well as the drop off from previous years.

image.thumb.png.261246ee55a7292a1c83adeb5030396c.png

& some STEAM highlights:

image.thumb.png.12bdbc673192c1f63030bbef51d1a97e.png

when January's & February's info updates, i will update this second image. will be interesting to see what kind of sustain there is post Yulefest.  but you can see the addition of the legacy servers bump wasn't huge by any means & much closer to the gains over the winter holidays.

9 hours ago, Almagnus1 said:

I think that's a huge problem when you try to convert a P2P MMO into a F2P one, as that lifer because a millstone because you've given a chunk of your playerbase free VIP for life.

IMO, LotRO should have stayed as P2P and...

All of the money generated by LotRO should have either stayed in LotRO, or gone into merging the MMO backends for DDO and LotRO so that Turbine only really has one MMO with two different mods to maintain.

But that makes too much sense for Turbine to have done, and something beyond the ability (or lack thereof) of SSG.

that is the thing though; the money generated by each lifetime push initially paid for DDO's FTP conversion & got the books in order for sale to Warner.

the following lifetime subscriptions pushes either paid for Lotro's conversion, or got siphoned off for Infinite Crisis.

& this latest studio wide drive by Daybreak games... probably is funding the new Planetside Battle Royal & who knows what other crooked shenanigans to clean the books of Columbus Nova & Renova's financing.

in all this, the actual Devs had little choice...  either than to high-tail it out of the place & find other employ.

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I knew the Mordor expansion wasn't exactly popular, but I had no idea just how bad it really was. With how minor that blip is around that release, it makes me think it's just the whales left, those people who play every day no matter what. And it's amazing to see how much Helm's Deep gutted the population.

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Seeing those graphs, I think RoR also killed the game with the poorly executed lag-fest-mounted-combat and maybe even more the lack of a proper end-game instance-cluster

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50 minutes ago, Thrabath said:

Seeing those graphs, I think RoR also killed the game with the poorly executed lag-fest-mounted-combat and maybe even more the lack of a proper end-game instance-cluster

Was that when they tagged on that shitty Erebor stuff because they'd tricked people into thinking the "expansion" would come with an instance cluster? My kin was already dead towards the end of RoI with its bad instance cluster, RoR meant I only had PvP left to focus on, then HD drove the final nail into the coffin and murdered characters. RoR dropped the game pretty low, but HD couldn't pick it up again and let it fall further. I can't imagine how bad Mordor is/was.

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I'm still in the first Region, playing on average 1 hour a month, but till now it's just a quest pack sold as an expansion

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I skipped Mordor completely.  I have the points to buy it but I never will.  I started the area after that (the one with Dale and Laketown) but lost interest fairly quickly. 

I did get my main to level cap using festival quests, now I'm waiting for them to redesign or drop LIs completely before I consider playing again.

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10 hours ago, Doro said:

I knew the Mordor expansion wasn't exactly popular, but I had no idea just how bad it really was. With how minor that blip is around that release, it makes me think it's just the whales left, those people who play every day no matter what. And it's amazing to see how much Helm's Deep gutted the population.

The problem with Mordor was the ridiculous price points of the "special editions" and that they spent years upon years pushing people to a mostly solo game with a chat room.  Players got used to how easy landscape content had become and I'd hazard a guess that those screaming for it to be lulz level of difficult were in the minority.  Already low population, content that for most people requires a partner, and what you get is another drop in the pop. 

This is what happens when you are completely out of touch with your players.  After I saw how terrible the destruction of the ring was dealt with so they could cram their pay to play "black book of bore more", I gave it up almost entirely. 

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40 minutes ago, Amenhir said:

 After I saw how terrible the destruction of the ring was dealt with so they could cram their pay to play "black book of bore more", I gave it up almost entirely. 

Oh shit, I'd completely forgot about that. Didn't that make it some faggy cutscene and that was it?

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1 hour ago, Doro said:

Oh shit, I'd completely forgot about that. Didn't that make it some faggy cutscene and that was it?

It was a session play and then a cutscene with 1998 graphics.

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8 hours ago, Amenhir said:

It was a session play and then a cutscene with 1998 graphics.

Yeah that bothered me because a dev had mentioned a while back that they had been looking forward to that for years and had it planned since the begining of the game and it was not going to be a simple session play but something we have never seen before.... only to have it come out and it be just a simple session play with a cutscene of gollum falling. It felt really anticlimatic and something that could have been an epic cutscene mixed with various gameplay types was just at least to me ignored so they could focus more on the p2w side of things with Mordor.  Than you had the blatant lies and false advertising about the High Elf Class, the liues about Ash gear dropping on  landscape (which they even discussed in the preview livestream" than claimed it was unintended (after they showed us during that stream how it worked with landscape gear using terms such as "you will want to venture more into the darker corners to find better gear and you can ash the old gear or duplicates you get" and a lot of the community saw through it.  Ontop of that you had Cordoban make his monkeys that stream moderators on the official stream and has honestly had streams where he barely talks but some chick speaks loudly as if she works for them.  It is sad to see how far that game fell.  

I am currently playing Shadows of War and yes even though it shits all over some of the lore, the gameplay and graphics are amazing.  Their stories in Mordor (such as Carnans arc) would have been something cool in Lotro.  But they just dropped the ball.

 

I love how people still are waiting for the 64 bit client though.  It isn't happening.  If it does, I will be truly surprised but I doubt it.

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On 1/7/2019 at 12:29 AM, Doro said:

I knew the Mordor expansion wasn't exactly popular, but I had no idea just how bad it really was. With how minor that blip is around that release, it makes me think it's just the whales left, those people who play every day no matter what. And it's amazing to see how much Helm's Deep gutted the population.

Mordors blip was less active than the server consolidation cycle (especially during the winter seasonal bump.)

On 1/7/2019 at 1:29 AM, Thrabath said:

Seeing those graphs, I think RoR also killed the game with the poorly executed lag-fest-mounted-combat and maybe even more the lack of a proper end-game instance-cluster

even the Free to Play launch saw roughly 5 days of activity spike and then an immediate and sharp decline till roughly the start of that years Yulefest where it leveled off for 3 weeks and than continued to decline right up until the anniversary in April followed by the spring fest.  Then it dropped much slower right up until the release of Rise of Isenguard.

and each major release had something similar.

outside of releases, the mitigation factors tend to be festivals & the annual Christmas / New Years holiday bumps.  so if you have ever wondered why they have those all the time...  they do somewhat dampen the sharpness of declines post release.


here is yet another graphic that absolutely highlights the November 8th 2018 Launch of Anor (and days later Ithil.)

image.png.ea8ee2b645b51d9849e6c2831d4f18d6.png

while Anor & Ithil aren't shown...  it clearly & dramatically shows how the existing 10 servers were impacted.  it also serves to amplify my point, that these legacy servers comprised (OVERWHELMINGLY) existing LotRO players & the new factor is illusory.

the overall population did not increase beyond drawing (momentarily) back some additional former players to rubberneck for a few days.  Anor & Ithils player-base came out of the existing 10 servers.  the actual net gain is momentary and but a thimbleful over an above what already existed.  & that momentary bump is already long gone.

image.png.1ea3ada9bae641b48663fdaf637c07d0.png

image.png.34e061f0b1b853e25503dab875aa14eb.png

the bulk of the success, was nothing more than a jammed log-in system creating an artificial peak of activity.  the reality is these new Legacy servers did not increase Lotro's actual player population.

but the fart sniffers never see the evidence until it is too late.

all that said, the population, whilst no longer growing, is also no longer rapidly declining & has been relatively stable the past 3 years.  the up & down cycles are much less dramatic.  so upsetting the apple-cart by adding servers confuses me...   unless of course it was successful in generating revenue.  even so, it isn't a good long term strategy.

maybe SSG could redeem themselves and close Crickhollow! 

you think i say in jest?  NAY!

better idea than most can conceive!  ;)

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Consolidation at this point won't help things. I knew many players who left due to the naming policy. Players stealing names. Players hoarding names. Players usurping names. The whole process was dumb and caused damaged which couldn't be repaired. The easiest thing Turbine could have done was added a server name to each existing player name to allow every player to keep their original name choice.

 

Festivals suck balls. They are boring and just an extension of the already existing grind. I won't do the festivals to barter for star-lits which is a main reason many players do them currently. Festivals are a distraction so players don't complain for a lack of content in pve quest, raids. Near everything SSG creates or employs is just to keep players doing same boring shit to buy time. Stalling for an inevitable. So stupid when they could choose a different path. I monitor much the same information for years and concur on many points made here.

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13 hours ago, TheKickman said:

I love how people still are waiting for the 64 bit client though.  It isn't happening.  If it does, I will be truly surprised but I doubt it.

Why do you think I'm playing FFXIV and Warframe? =P

 

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On 1/6/2019 at 11:44 PM, LasraelLarson said:

some STEAM highlights:

image.thumb.png.12bdbc673192c1f63030bbef51d1a97e.png

when January's & February's info updates, i will update this second image. will be interesting to see what kind of sustain there is post Yulefest.  but you can see the addition of the legacy servers bump wasn't huge by any means & much closer to the gains over the winter holidays.

here is the updated image comparing a snapshot of the first week of January (with the festival bump) to the stark drop off post Festival.

image.png.baf019a0bb1a8ba8dbd2bfb2793ff4c5.png

unfortunately i didn't grab a snap of the final week of the festival, but if memory serves me correct, the gain was still shy of the December loss of -30.4.  so while the fest did not surpass the initial November gain from the legacy servers, it was just shy by a very small margin.

what is noteworthy however in the above comparison is the dramatic decrease post festival on January 14th. for a net loss of -70.1 by the end of January & the continued MASSIVE drop throughout February.  -230.1!!!

as of today (march 14th.) and the Moria launch on the legacy servers.... these STEAM numbers are an ALL TIME LOW for LOTRO on STEAM (547.8 average players.)  we shall see if Moria on Legacy actually brings the numbers back up again, or will it be the Spring Festival that does...  so far, todays numbers aren't that significant.

image.png.ec2824d69ec87855bd346cc861900e80.png

Just over 800 hitting Anor for Moria Launch...

image.png.5456736a6f7d218a4e1feef55e5c1a7f.png

and just shy of 400 for Moria launch on Ithil.

also noteworthy...  these gains do seem to come directly out of the regular 10 servers.  should also have some charts in the next couple of days reflecting that.

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Moria launched today and it seems the LS cash cow hasn't yielded much as of today. The numbers didn't impress me. Maybe this weekend they will pick up. _O-

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it should also be noted that the February STEAM loss of -230.1 is isolated from the outage due to the Database Migration March 6-9 which will impact March numbers some, but would also make any Legacy Moria launch & Spring Festival gains that much more impactful.

i think Spring Festival starts March 21st?

so Moria on Legacy has one week in isolation to impact gains...  then Spring Fest starts.

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I see no marked increase of activity on LS over this past weekend. One would expect this to occur if the venture is to remain successful. Some lodss of activity on Landy but this could be due to several factors not being attributed to LS activity. End game grind, holiday, spring, ect. Also of note, the logons for LS and old servers are affected by this. Many players log onto both from the same accounts there by adding numbers which could seems as extra activity from any known data collection.

In general, everything that was expected here by its users have been close the reality. The LS are not doing well and still syphon activity from the old servers. Steam at its all time low is telling of the situation and just how bad the game is doing. I don't know or see how this can continue with the current trend. It would be really sad to think a festival could be LotRO's saving grace. 😞

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