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Almagnus1

Doomsaying - When does math say the LotRO Population will hit zero?

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So spinning this out from Server Population thread:

Based on the current loss rate of players, when will LotRO population hit zero?

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On 1/14/2019 at 4:08 PM, Almagnus1 said:

So based on the current rate of decay, when do you project the population hitting zero?

not sure why you'd specifically ask someone who records the log-ins from the client... though i will take a stab.

given the rather slow & relatively small decline the past 3 years:

image.png.b3dd27144aeb4bc30eae67c12098b86b.png

population isn't down by much really.  depending on how much revenue this thing pulls in, it will likely continue.  any risk is likely to come completely out of left field...  IE: Daybreak collapsing in on itself.  the above graphic also doesn't include Anor & Ithil, which ad a small bump as well.

image.png.bffa6832cd07944efb9ae4f3cc84c6ac.png

the 10 main servers, whilst not completely bounced back, have regained most of what they lost to Anor & Ithil & it has only been 2 months.  in another 2 months Moria will launch on the legacy servers & 4 months after that another addition of content.  with each addition, that specific feeling folk are getting is going to diminish.

real question is will this prolonged split of population have an impact, or will folk tire of the shiny & return to the familiar?

regardless, they have gone on for 3 years on close to a flat progression in population, no significant gains & the attrition is relatively minor.  no huge losses of players like with Helms Deep, or even FTP.  so baring external forces, it will likely plug on.

that said, Daybreaks studio wide revenue drive with the last cycle of big package deals @every title it currently publishes...  what happens if they put that money into this new Planetside BattleRoyale & it turns out to be another "Infinite Crisis"  ???   ;)

anyway, if that is something you want to further discuss, perhaps start new thread...  this feels a bit thread-jackish.

 

...sorry Agra.

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Looks like it's hit its steady decay period. The flesh has long since rotted off and it's just a slowly-dusting skeleton but it's still there. Either new players are equal to lost players, or there's no new players and no lost players, just a bedrock group willing to fund the game in whatever state it is.

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On 1/14/2019 at 4:08 PM, Almagnus1 said:

So spinning this out from Server Population thread:

Based on the current loss rate of players, when will LotRO population hit zero?

i will actually give this topic a serious answer.  ;)

based off the last 3 years represented in this image:

image.png.d11bb6265c870d8d767a4d39f03006c4.png

if no external factors change...

* Daybreak Games does not Implode ✔️

* Servers remain at 10 (+2) and are not further consolidated ✔️

* SSG avoids really big changes like they unveiled with HD trait trees, or other things to upset the apple cart ✔️

you are looking at another 8 years minimum (more likely 10).  SSG could extend that out by simply consolidating a server or 2, over time.

lets just say hypothetically they whittled the active server list down to one or two servers on each side of the pond (4 max.)  that alone could add another decade, or more.

by doing next to nothing, other than using the robust server transfer feature they now have, the game could go on for another 20 years.

my only recommendation...  it is more clever than a first glance could imagine...  is Crickhollow is the first to go!  ;) 

 

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28 minutes ago, Doro said:

, just a bedrock group willing to fund the game in whatever state it is.

^^^ The people that suffer from Tolkien Derangement Syndrome and need to be in Middle Earth or their reality collapses 

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I believe the game will last for a very long time, there are many players who doesn't really care about new raids/instances or any kind of challenge what so ever.

Those players are easy to please, some of them only want to experience middle earth while role playing, while some want to experience it by leveling doing quests seeing new zones.

The effort that required to satisfy those players is minimal new zone every now and then, and and on top of that to have nice stor where they can buy cosmetics and other shiny stuff.

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The strange/stupid thing is, at least Vastin gives me the idea that solving strange decisions in the past and getting some sort of balance back in the game is one of his main priorities - combined with trying to make systems more future-proof

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1 minute ago, Thrabath said:

The strange/stupid thing is, at least Vastin gives me the idea that solving strange decisions in the past and getting some sort of balance back in the game is one of his main priorities - combined with trying to make systems more future-proof

What makes you think that?

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The communication he posts on the forum; Now about the minstrel, last months about the beorning, the guardian and stat overhaul the months before that, Hunter before that if I remember correctly.

The execution isn't perfect and to be honest, I think the team Vastin works is is very small, so they can't do that much, but I've got the idea they are trying

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I guess Vastin will now be taking on the mantle of burglar dev along with all the other ones.  How long before he gets burnt out from doing everything?

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I would welcome maintenance mode, if it actually meant they would do maintenance on the existing game. Unfortunately, they keep adding more content onto a rotting foundation. 

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On 2/2/2019 at 2:40 PM, Splay said:

Probably about the same time maintenance mode starts.

Maintenance mode? More like a "fuck you" mode. LI grind too much? Fuck you. Why are these last class changes not documented in patch notes? Fuck you. Where are the burglar changes we've been promised to get in previous update? Fuck you. Why didn't we even get to test any of these new changes on Bullroarer first? Fuck you. Hey when are the festivals gonna be this year? Fuck you. Hey where is the Producer's Letter that was supposed to be delivered back in December last year telling about this year's plans? Fuck you. Hey what's this new "Skirmish event" we can't find any details about it at all? Fuck you.

Maintenance mode is so 2014 - 2017. Welcome to fuck you mode.

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4 hours ago, Wrath of Winter said:

Maintenance mode? More like a "fuck you" mode. LI grind too much? Fuck you. Why are these last class changes not documented in patch notes? Fuck you. Where are the burglar changes we've been promised to get in previous update? Fuck you. Why didn't we even get to test any of these new changes on Bullroarer first? Fuck you. Hey when are the festivals gonna be this year? Fuck you. Hey where is the Producer's Letter that was supposed to be delivered back in December last year telling about this year's plans? Fuck you. Hey what's this new "Skirmish event" we can't find any details about it at all? Fuck you.

Maintenance mode is so 2014 - 2017. Welcome to fuck you mode.

I love this, it's so true!  I think FU Mode started with the Mordor xpack pricing/content options, and escalated from there.

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LOTRO has been in maintenance mode for years.  Consider all of the content released since then that is still in alpha testing (Beornings), flat-out doesn't work (raids), has been all-but-abandoned (PvMP), is pay-to-win (lootboxes), or caters to easily-entertained casuals (festivals).  Not to mention four critically panned expansions (Siege of Mirkwood, Riders of Rohan, Helm's Deep, Mordor), downsizing, downsizing, downsizing, and the whole "parent companies are owned by Russian oligarchs, except they're not, except they are, except whew no one cares about this anymore" scandal...

 

At this point, the only thing keeping the lights on is the little coven of whales pouring their entire trust funds into lootbox keys.

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[Lots of things that are proof they aren't in maintenance mode]..... See, proof of maintenance mode!

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On 2/7/2019 at 6:17 AM, Wrath of Winter said:

Maintenance mode? More like a "fuck you" mode. LI grind too much? Fuck you. Why are these last class changes not documented in patch notes? Fuck you. Where are the burglar changes we've been promised to get in previous update? Fuck you. Why didn't we even get to test any of these new changes on Bullroarer first? Fuck you. Hey when are the festivals gonna be this year? Fuck you. Hey where is the Producer's Letter that was supposed to be delivered back in December last year telling about this year's plans? Fuck you. Hey what's this new "Skirmish event" we can't find any details about it at all? Fuck you.

Maintenance mode is so 2014 - 2017. Welcome to fuck you mode.

Holy shit! That's so fuckin funny. Maybe worth a new wiki entry for shit shows in the MMO world.

 

Sorry folks we are no longer in the development phrase. We are skipping past the maintenance mode. Next week we transition into the "Fuck You Mode". Keep giving us your money and hey FUCK YOU!

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1 minute ago, Splay said:

Holy shit! That's so fuckin funny. Maybe worth a new wiki entry for shit shows in the MMO world.

 

Sorry folks we are no longer in the development phrase. We are skipping past the maintenance mode. Next week we transition into the "Fuck You Mode". Keep giving us your money and hey FUCK YOU!

That's precisely what games like Marvel Heroes Online and Clone Wars Adventures did to its players.

 

Transformers Universe didn't even launch before they pulled that shit. 

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4 hours ago, Splay said:

Holy shit! That's so fuckin funny. Maybe worth a new wiki entry for shit shows in the MMO world.

 

Sorry folks we are no longer in the development phrase. We are skipping past the maintenance mode. Next week we transition into the "Fuck You Mode". Keep giving us your money and hey FUCK YOU!

You know what's funny about that term?  It perfectly describes WoW's current state XD

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I'm now firmly in the belief that this undead game will never lose all its player base, because there's just too many oddballs out there with seemingly an endless supply of disposable income but nothing else going on in their life, so they keep on spending. Maybe it's some mental disorder along the lines of autism. It's the only explanation I can think of as to why they're so fucking weird.

I mean, look at this shit. Making threads to share fucking song lyrics where they make it about Lord of the Rings? Or this trash. What sort of NPC-level sort of humour is that? And even worse, people respond positively about it. Reeks of that mental fucker you see at bus stops with their belly out humming fucking anime intros out of key. Normally, people steer clear of the nutter, but on the forums? They congregate like outcast moths to a socially-inept flame.

These are the sorts of people who are still fuelling the game, and with people that out of touch with normality it's no longer surprising to me that SSG keeps the lights on.

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1 hour ago, Doro said:

I'm now firmly in the belief that this undead game will never lose all its player base, because there's just too many oddballs out there with seemingly an endless supply of disposable income but nothing else going on in their life, so they keep on spending. Maybe it's some mental disorder along the lines of autism. It's the only explanation I can think of as to why they're so fucking weird.

I mean, look at this shit. Making threads to share fucking song lyrics where they make it about Lord of the Rings? Or this trash. What sort of NPC-level sort of humour is that? And even worse, people respond positively about it. Reeks of that mental fucker you see at bus stops with their belly out humming fucking anime intros out of key. Normally, people steer clear of the nutter, but on the forums? They congregate like outcast moths to a socially-inept flame.

These are the sorts of people who are still fuelling the game, and with people that out of touch with normality it's no longer surprising to me that SSG keeps the lights on.

Maybe it's because body odor and halitosis is not a factor on the internet /shrug.

Maybe they just lack the ability to cut their losses when they stop having fun, and will warp the laws of reality in their minds as much as necessary in order to tell themselves they're still having fun.

There are actually long-time shills on the OF who are beginning to show signs of seeing the light.  They still temper their criticisms with blind praise to their oligarchs at every possible opportunity, but it's easy to tell they're losing hope.  Those are the ones who will cry the loudest when the shutdown announcement finally comes.

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18 minutes ago, psalm8818 said:

They still temper their criticisms with blind praise to their oligarchs at every possible opportunity, but it's easy to tell they're losing hope.

And I see that all the time, too. The moment a blue name pops up, a bunch of sycophants all start getting over-excited and thanking them for gracing the forums with a meaningless post. We've all seen the sort of people behind those blue names (and it's as you'd expect for an MMO developer, they're not exactly alphas), there's literally no reason to treat them like deities or give virtual wanks if they appear in a thread.

Then again, maybe I'm giving the sycophants too much credit, and they're more likely on a rung below beta so they do actually look up to blue names.

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1 hour ago, Doro said:

The moment a blue name pops up, a bunch of sycophants all start getting over-excited and thanking them for gracing the forums with a meaningless post.

This happens when MadeofLions posts, he's treated like some savior it's almost cult like.  And often, he will pop into a post that starts out with a valid criticism/negative bent in hopes that just his mere presence will quiet the haters.  I lost any remaining respect for him when he tried to excuse/explain away why loot-boxes are in the game.

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9 hours ago, Doro said:

Or this trash. What sort of NPC-level sort of humour is that? And even worse, people respond positively about it.

I was actually shocked when they took your sarcasm for praise.

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8 hours ago, Doro said:

And I see that all the time, too. The moment a blue name pops up, a bunch of sycophants all start getting over-excited and thanking them for gracing the forums with a meaningless post. We've all seen the sort of people behind those blue names (and it's as you'd expect for an MMO developer, they're not exactly alphas), there's literally no reason to treat them like deities or give virtual wanks if they appear in a thread.

Then again, maybe I'm giving the sycophants too much credit, and they're more likely on a rung below beta so they do actually look up to blue names.

Much like killing for sport, overexpansion and the need to be at odds with someone or someTHING at all times, I think it's simply human nature to kiss ass.

 

Back when Cordovan was hired and all the shills popped up with "You're doing a great job!" all I could think (and post) was "No he's not.  He's literally not doing anything at all except banning paying customers who are dissatisfied with and publicly critical of the product."  The clincher was when he complained on the OF about having to log in on the weekend to deal with Baba Ji spam, which is literally his job, yet all the usual suspects treated him like he was a saintly martyr for performing duties he is paid to perform.

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