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LasraelLarson

Frivolous Polling: Doomsayers 2020

Frivolous Polling: Doomsayers 2020  

8 members have voted

  1. 1. Which title is in the biggest trouble & will fold first?

    • BLESS Online
      0
    • Aion Free to Play
      0
    • RIFT
      3
    • Secret World Legends
      2
    • ArchaAge
      1
    • EverQuest II
      0
    • Something Else (I will add game name to the comments section)
      2


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for reference:

BLESS Online

Aion FTP

RIFT

Secret World Legends

ArcheAge

EverQuest II

and for discussion purposes here are some titles that appear strong and not in any imminent danger:

1.) World of Warcraft

2.) Elder Scrolls Online

3.) Black Desert Online

4.) Final Fantasy IV Online

5.) Guild Wars 2

6.) Conan Exiles

7.) TERA

8.) StarTrek Online

so do you agree with the safe list?  did i miss anything for the western market?

let the doom-saying 2020 begin... ;)

 

edit: FULL DISCLOSURE:

i voted RIFT,  but i think ArcheAge is also on it's last legs.  TRION (now Gamico) is in as bad shape as Daybreak IMO, if not worse.  whole gaming industry is in for some harsh corrections in near future.

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Isn't a Norwegian game studio responsible for Secret World Legends?  If so, they may get a government bailt out potentially, so that one could be a wild card.

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Secret World Legends. They already shot themselves in the foot when they "re-released" Secret World and didn't transfer paying customers' characters over, but they've also been having insane client issues with lag so bad it's practically unplayable. There's no dedicated, in-depth wiki either like bigger MMOs have (which LotRO also lacks now), which doesn't help the appearance of a healthy game.

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14 hours ago, Almagnus1 said:

Isn't a Norwegian game studio responsible for Secret World Legends?  If so, they may get a government bail-out potentially, so that one could be a wild card.

but isn't that exactly what happened with the original Secret Worlds?  Norway's Capitalist-Socialist hybrid works in such a small Country that is for the most part still homogeneous.  whilst a single bail-out may be a thing, i don't think their system works by perpetuating failures.

i think that grace has already been extended.  if this company doesn't pull up on its own, it is likely over.  do not see some 3rd party angel investor jumping in either.

7 hours ago, Doro said:

Secret World Legends. They already shot themselves in the foot when they "re-released" Secret World and didn't transfer paying customers' characters over, but they've also been having insane client issues with lag so bad it's practically unplayable. There's no dedicated, in-depth wiki either like bigger MMOs have (which LotRO also lacks now), which doesn't help the appearance of a healthy game.

hadn't followed it that much, but does sound like cause of their current lack for players.  if that translates to a closure in the near future, i wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

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Guild Wars 2
ArenaNet had to let go of roughly 35% of their employees including most of their veteran staff. If think they're some safe, you haven't really been paying attention (understandable considering this is a LotRO forum not a GW2 forum). They had a team working on some else, a mobile game, GW3, or something unnannounced, but that was cancelled entirely because because they only have enough staff for GW2. From the sounds of it they don't even have a team working on an expansion and if they do start work on one, all updates to the game would probably stop for 6 months or more. The situation is grim and if ArenaNet can't find a way to make money on an old MMO, Guild Wars will become the second coming of City of Heroes.

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5 hours ago, thordsvin said:

Guild Wars 2
ArenaNet had to let go of roughly 35% of their employees including most of their veteran staff. If think they're some safe, you haven't really been paying attention (understandable considering this is a LotRO forum not a GW2 forum). They had a team working on some else, a mobile game, GW3, or something unnannounced, but that was cancelled entirely because because they only have enough staff for GW2. From the sounds of it they don't even have a team working on an expansion and if they do start work on one, all updates to the game would probably stop for 6 months or more. The situation is grim and if ArenaNet can't find a way to make money on an old MMO, Guild Wars will become the second coming of City of Heroes.

i have been paying attention.

ArenaNet had a bunch of hidden projects under wraps they were working on.  for whatever reason they decided to cancel those & focus on just GW2.  the 143 terminations were to clear out the excess.

if they keep their expansion cadence, it will come at the end of this year.  there is still roughly a window of a few months before it is clear one isn't coming.  end of August, beginning of September is when they'll likely announce.  GW2 still has a decent population that does spend money & they have Mega Server tech that places people questing on a map, together cross servers.  so it never feels completely dead.  you have to remember as well, the entire base game is FTP.  only expansions cost.  they already made the money on the base game back when they charged for it.  GW2 also generates decent revenue from gem sales, on top of expansions.    i don't see a city of heroes situation when original GW is still alive and kicking.

whilst Q1 2019 is still a ways off (likely beginning of May)  2018 Q4 can be viewed.

image.png.855b988ffbe5d62b89f7b2cb8a846204.png

1 Korean Won = 0.00088 USD.  so for 2018 that is roughly = $ 70,400,000.00 USD in 2018

4Q 2018 = roughly $13,788,720.00 USD

something that brought in just a hair north of  $70 million USD in 2018 is not at risk of shutting down tomorrow.  GW2 easily has a place in the top 10 Western Market MMO's for player population...  there is a good chance it is still top 5.

edit: because why not ;)

edit #2:

on second thought maybe no one is playing GW2 in 2019 and it just lags, and skills don't fire & the action is just lackluster...

March 2019 Zerg busting over a couple nights.  watch in full screen and you can read some of the names:

^^^last month (March 2019), i guess this is what dead & dying looks like...  don't tell the dozen+ on each server in Lotro PvP.  :P

also i could keep this up for hours as well, but i won't   ;)

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On 4/6/2019 at 7:24 PM, LasraelLarson said:

edit: because why not ;)

 

sidebar to above:  does anyone notice he makes 2 different claims to how much he plays? 

1.) so many hours over 2 years= works out to just under 5 hours a day...

2.) streams PvP on Twitch 5 - 8 hours a day.

just thought i'd pop back and say with regard to the game grind & someone who is unclear as to just how much he plays...  take the term "a little grind" with a grain of salt.  ;)

maybe needed to be clearer in delineating between game not dying Vs hardcore endorsing.  ;)

also, poll needs more votes.

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GW2 announced a while back that they would be moving from Living Story 4 right into Living Story 5 without an expansion between them.  That was before the big employee purge.  Now they've said they're focused on GW2 instead of being spread across all those unannounced, now-cancelled projects, so maybe they will decide to work on an expansion for the future.

Living Story episodes are free to everyone who logs in while they are current, so they only bring money in for people who missed the login window and want to play them.  And now they've been running a "return to Guild Wars 2" thing where they're giving away the Season 4 episodes one each week leading up to the release of the final episode soon.

So they do need a money-maker in the pipeline soon.  But I don't think it's in a death spiral yet.

Also I do WvW zergs on occasion and it can get laggy for me, but my laptop is ancient and it's nowhere near as laggy as LOTRO is in normal open-world questing.  The zergs are a lot of fun!

Edit: voted for Secret World Legends.  

 

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On 4/11/2019 at 6:09 AM, warspeech said:

So they do need a money-maker in the pipeline soon.  But I don't think it's in a death spiral yet.

yeah 4th quarter 2018 is way down because no big ticket items driving up revenue.  still almost 14 million on character slots, storage, dye packs, infinite cosmetic mining tools & other frills bought with gems is not terrible.

definitely no revenue records broken, but definitely not gasping for breath either.

On 4/11/2019 at 6:09 AM, warspeech said:

Also I do WvW zergs on occasion and it can get laggy for me, but my laptop is ancient and it's nowhere near as laggy as LOTRO is in normal open-world questing.  The zergs are a lot of fun!

emphasis mine.  that is the kicker.  you can be in a mass of people on GW2 in active combat skills firing, etc.  and generally it works very well.  (my system doesn't lag, or at least not of any note.)  but you can be alone in Rohan fighting a single mob in Lotro, crossing a zone boundary, or any relatively simple task and it will lag fairly constantly in some form or another.

and thing about that GW2 video, the zerg busting group is using cross class synergies, if you look at the top right side of the UI, you can see the stacked boons on the vlogger. shield bubbles, stealths,  damaging fields & casted damage, all that stuff firing & the combat interface isn't hanging at all, timers are flowing smoothly, etc. etc.  & everyone is moving fairly smoothly as well.  no running men, no rubber-banding, etc.  and if you do see someone kind of sluggish, it is because of a de-buff like chill (slowing effect) or some form of immobilize limiting movement, etc.

thing about a vid like that with soo much visual noise from the sheer volume of players, it is hard to see the complexity, but there are just as many solo/duo and small group vids showcasing that side as well.

& the kicker, whilst there is that frenetic push/ cleave/ back away/ regroup & buff/ re-push...  yackity yack.  throughout the clip, there is also laughter... or ima sort my bags while wait on a group push skill cool-down.  they are having fun playing something that WORKS!  not in a cycle of failing lag, complaining/wishing it did.  ;)

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I think Dark Age of Camelot may be on its last legs.  Nearly 100% of its already dwindling player base has migrated to a free private server.  Broadsword (or whomever owns it now) was supposed to shift to a Free to Play model 3 years ago, but to date that has not occurred.  It's the same old story really; people want to play the game before [insert shitty expansion/patch that ruined the game] was implemented.

 

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On 4/12/2019 at 7:57 PM, psalm8818 said:

I think Dark Age of Camelot may be on its last legs

i didn't even know it (original) was still a thing...

or are you talking about the potential reboot?  (Camelot Unchained)

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19 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

i didn't even know it (original) was still a thing...

or are you talking about the potential reboot?  (Camelot Unchained)

No the original game is still limping along...and I do mean limping.  But as you might guess, it bares very little resemblance to the game that made it a serious competitor to Everquest for a time.  Whereas LOTRO is held afloat by whales who can't live without buying premium hats and horses, DAOC's lifeline has ever been multiboxers who make it look like the game has double the playerbase it actually does (as of this writing, DAOC has no F2P model, and requires a sub to play, and two subs to be competitive), using their 2nd accounts as buffbots afking inside castle keeps.  But not surprisingly, private DAOC emulator servers that do not allow multiboxing have more than 10x the playerbase than live servers today.

 

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On 4/6/2019 at 7:24 PM, LasraelLarson said:

whilst Q1 2019 is still a ways off (likely beginning of May)  2018 Q4 can be viewed.

image.png.855b988ffbe5d62b89f7b2cb8a846204.png

1 Korean Won = 0.00088 USD.  so for 2018 that is roughly = $ 70,400,000.00 USD in 2018

4Q 2018 = roughly $13,788,720.00 USD

just updating this as 2019 Q1 is available for viewing:

image.png.40907e9114521742bab757b1851b172c.png

Lineage (Original) got hammered & everything is down slightly except Lineage 2 and GW2.

and just for the conversion to American Dollars again, GW2 earned $ 13,894,360.27 USD in 2019 first quarter.

what is amazing is AION somehow managing $10,480,516.72 USD in Q1 2019, but i have heard they monetized the shit out of that game.

wonder how these numbers compare to Lotro?  ;)

edit:

RIFT is merging its EU servers

does this mean they are going to fight to make the existing user experience better?  or just cutting costs to stretch things out?

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What has been ailing Rift (the game) to put it on the potential cutting block? 

Haven't kept up with its happenings since way back in 2014,  when it was still getting much praise and recommendations from some forum users here who no longer post. Which means it was either shilling....or Rift managed to somehow fuck up the golden goose that was handed to them on silver platter.

Tried Rift myself back around that time, found it water-thin and lacking as far as storytelling but it left a good impression for pure mechanics and gameplay (shitload of variety of things to do, live dynamic world events, etc). Granted that was my only other MMO experience apart from Lotro, so it goes without saying I was easy to impress. Would welcome a scoop on how Rift devs and/or management sabotaged what they had going for them.

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5 hours ago, Wrath of Winter said:

What has been ailing Rift (the game)

 

Quote

Hamburg, October 23, 2018 – The gamigo AG („gamigo Bond“ WKN: A2NBH2 / ISIN: SE0011614445) has acquired major assets from Trion Worlds Inc., a leading US gaming company with offices in Redwood City (California) and Austin (Texas) and has as publisher and developer of online and console MMO-games, well-known games such as Rift, Defiance, Trove and ArcheAge in its portfolio. Trion was acquired via an “Assignment for the Benefit of the Creditors” process, in which the buyer only buys those assets, with which he wishes to continue the business. In this process, gamigo group acquired the majority of the assets, including the platform, takes over employees to operate the business and gets the full publishing rights of the games. The IP’s of the Trion Worlds games have been acquired by gamigo’s sister company Padmapani GmbH and are made available for gamigo group, worldwide and exclusive.
“The successful acquisition and subsequent integration of Trion into our portfolio substantially strengthen gamigo’s position in the European and American gaming market. On the one hand, we add similar and successful brands and games to the already broad gamigo portfolio, on the other hand, we are looking to unlock substantial synergies with the group’s existing business to further benefit from the remarkable growth potential that the gaming market offers.”, comments gamigo’s CEO Remco Westermann.
Through the acquisition of Trion, gamigo’s management expects additional revenues of over USD 18 million and an additional EBITDA of USD 1 to 4 million for 2019. This estimate depends on the success of the restructuring and integration of Trion and is mainly based on potential economies of scale and synergies. The exploitation of economies of scale and synergies is an elementary part of the gamigo strategy and has been proven several times in acquisitions in the past.

Article here:

 

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welp Bless Online is the first on the list to sink.

Neowiz is Sun-setting its:

Japanese Server on August 8th. 2019

&

Western Market through STEAM on September 9th. 2019

 

Neowiz already killed the Korean side last year:

November 9th 2018 - Korean Service ends.

soo...

Adios BLESS Online.

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