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COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

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as of the end of April (30) 2020; a look at the doubling case and death rate:

 

image.thumb.jpeg.fd52d6cec1e018f2de08eaa6c38c4c6f.jpeg

interesting in both cases to note who is moving at a faster pace than the global average, and who is slower...

Edited by LasraelLarson
cleaned up the image for better comparison

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South Korea and the United States reported their first case on the same day. Let's just say the response since that time has been different and leave it at that.

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The figures for the UK deaths needs some clarity, as starting yesterday they are now including care home deaths, thats is why there was  a large jump in the number of deaths yesterday

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i edited the image in my previous post for clearer comparison.

my source for the info, if anyone wants to see it change from day to day:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#global-comparison-where-are-confirmed-cases-increasing-most-rapidly

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#global-comparison-where-are-confirmed-deaths-increasing-most-rapidly

1 hour ago, FundinStrongarm said:

South Korea and the United States reported their first case on the same day. Let's just say the response since that time has been different and leave it at that.

the original SARS of 2003 had a big role in changing how Taiwan & South Korea structured their medical systems.  they have a cross platform sharing that neither Canada, or the US has.  everything is networked up there across each Nation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/experience-of-sars-key-factor-in-response-to-coronavirus

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-18/covid-19-response-better-in-countries-with-sars-mers-coronavirus

but as far as how Covid19 tracked in each country...

image.thumb.jpeg.c68a0116a6ee62fcacf0021a0fe9faec.jpeg

in every chart South Koreas outbreak had an earlier spike than the US...  by a little better than 2 weeks.

1 hour ago, cossieuk said:

The figures for the UK deaths needs some clarity, as starting yesterday they are now including care home deaths, thats is why there was  a large jump in the number of deaths yesterday

similar to New York.  though those deaths were included in New York numbers almost immediately.

but that inclusion has pushed UK to the top of the deaths per infection chart, as of today:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/

Mexico is closing in on the above 10% group.

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one more chart for total tests done in order from most to least:

image.thumb.jpeg.812477f2192ffe1bc06dc302e2d5c821.jpeg

tests alone aren't the largest factor in control.

contact tracing plus mandatory 14 day quarantine of positive test results is also key.  and this later part was crucial for those entering the country from other parts of the globe.  intercepted and tested at the airport (ports of entry) and required to quarantine for 14 days regardless.  Taiwan and Singapore had this pretty much right away, South Korea fairly quickly after (because of the systems in place already from SARS 2003.)  don't think even Japan has this locked down entirely yet.

for every other country on the globe...  ALL of them (with the exception of Singapore and Taiwan and after March 1 2020 South Korea) did not take it to this level.

the next best thing to the above was travel bans.  what countries that lacked the infrastructure to have data networked across country from Government to hospitals to businesses to personal cell phones.

...

the bottom line (for myself) is the W.H.O. spread misinformation from China regarding this new disease right up until they declared it a global pandemic on March 11 2020.  that was the single largest factor (by a huge margin) behind pretty much every Nation on the globe (with the exception of Singapore and Taiwan) being caught off guard.

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3 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

contact tracing plus mandatory 14 day quarantine of positive test results is also key.  and this later part was crucial for those entering the country from other parts of the globe.  intercepted and tested at the airport (ports of entry) and required to quarantine for 14 days regardless.  Taiwan and Singapore had this pretty much right away, South Korea fairly quickly after (because of the systems in place already from SARS 2003.)  don't think even Japan has this locked down entirely yet.

It's certainly been useful for short-term success, but just how viable is it long-term? This virus has proved itself as an absolute bastard to stop circulating for a variety of reasons (both biological and social), so it's not going away any time soon. When it's firmly established itself as Flu Season 2: Electric Boogaloo in the rest of the world that did fail early containment, just how long can these lesser-hit countries keep their practices up without getting hit economically from delays in both travel and trade? Vaccines and cures are seeming less and less likely the more eyes get on this thing's makeup, and if it's only a temporary immunity naturally developed then it would have been a better idea to not try to slow the spread so that it would burn itself out, instead of being presented recovered hosts to re-infect in later waves. Without a sudden miraculous u-turn that sees this thing die off after one bout or because the sun has got his hat on (hip hip hip hooray) in the summer months, these countries are going to end up islands surrounded by a typhoon.

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1 hour ago, Doro said:

It's certainly been useful for short-term success, but just how viable is it long-term? This virus has proved itself as an absolute bastard to stop circulating for a variety of reasons (both biological and social), so it's not going away any time soon.

i believe i have mentioned earlier in this thread...  i wonder just how long the 14 day incubation period will hold...  or if this particular chimeric bug even has a season...

seems just as likely this thing will roll on until it mutates itself out of existence (lose its potency.)

1 hour ago, Doro said:

When it's firmly established itself as Flu Season 2: Electric Boogaloo in the rest of the world that did fail early containment, just how long can these lesser-hit countries keep their practices up without getting hit economically from delays in both travel and trade?

well Taiwan at least has only practiced social distancing.  no lock-downs or business closures needed as the shelter in place (or forced quarantine) has only applied to those symptomatic, or arriving from outside the country.  when in crowds, folk there wear masks.  all in all it seems to be effective so far.

it was China that went nuts welding people inside their residences & shutting everything down.

didn't help that the W.H.O. carried water for them until March 11 2020 (and to a degree still does.)  or that persons like Bill Gates praise how China handled it.

meanwhile Taiwan gets ignored and pushed aside (at Chinas behest) and that is the example to be inspired by...   NOT China.

China was a goddamned disaster & they are still covering up... everything.  from actual numbers, to the ability to track this virus forensically to get a real picture of its history.  additionally stories keep coming out about China shipping faulty equipment around the globe...  latest is faulty ventilators to UK.

so it entirely depends on the route nations decide to follow. dumbfounding some even consider China and option.  truly 🤡 world.

1 hour ago, Doro said:

Vaccines and cures are seeming less and less likely the more eyes get on this thing's makeup

oh money will push those ahead regardless...  Canada threw over a Billion at vaccines alone.  Bill Gates is wholly invested.  the one company behind remdesivir (and their paid allies) just pushed its approval through, no media backlash either.  i wonder why...

Remsdesevir: -$1000 per pill -on-patent -1 US manufacturer (Gilead)

Hydroxychloroquine: -$0.63 per pill -generic -11 US manufacturers

Azithromycin: -$0.84 per pill -generic -12 US manufacturers

check out who scooped up the patent on Remdesivir...  that's right, China.  Wuhan Institute of Virology  to be specific.  non sub story option

1 hour ago, Doro said:

if it's only a temporary immunity naturally developed then it would have been a better idea to not try to slow the spread so that it would burn itself out, instead of being presented recovered hosts to re-infect in later waves.

the immunity question hasn't been definitively answered to date.  so far speculation abounds.  no quick answer here.  time will bare this out. natural mutations over the course of time should weaken the virulence or potency regardless.

...

one last thing about contract tracing, if adopted, it absolutely MUST be opt in & incredibly affordable, even free.  this is a huge issue in the west with cell data gathering running afoul of privacy laws and civil liberties.  who OWNS personal data?  consent of use, etc. etc.

it is also a hurdle because tech companies will no longer hold a monopoly on user data...   the more you network that data across country for Hospitals, Businesses, Governments and Users...  that is no longer an item tech Co. can sell to 3rd parties wanting user information.

so the devaluation involved with PROPERLY deploying contract tracking...  it isn't a money maker, therefore an even harder sell.  & you need to make it all secure...  _O-

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Thursday marked zero new domestic CASES in South Korea. Not a steady plateau or gradual decline. Zero new cases.

Test trace and treat/isolate has proved successful there. Many countries have wasted weeks of time not ramping up testing to where it needs to be.

I'd say (spitballing here) you need to be able to test 1% of your population daily to have a decent chance of getting back to relatively normal existence. Yes, that means 3 million per day in US, 300,000 per day in Canada and 650,000 in UK.

That's what government needs to be spending money on (or offering rewards to achieve). The crucial questions are rights guarantees and sunset provisions, imo.

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So the UK government has announced that it carried out 122000 test in the past day.  They get to this figure by counting the test kits that have been mailed to people at home and to care homes even though they have actually tested these people.  The kits account for around 40000 tests.  Yet more bullshit figures from this government. 

Also we still dont have any contact tracing in place in the UK, so the chances of the lock down being loosened next week are slim.

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6 hours ago, cossieuk said:

So the UK government has announced that it carried out 122000 test in the past day.  They get to this figure by counting the test kits that have been mailed to people at home and to care homes even though they have actually tested these people.  The kits account for around 40000 tests.  Yet more bullshit figures from this government. 

Also we still dont have any contact tracing in place in the UK, so the chances of the lock down being loosened next week are slim.

And they're counting re-tests for confirmation as part of the testing numbers, so it looks like the actual number of individuals tested is much, much lower than claimed. Even 60,000 separate individuals would be generous. However, that does also mean that multiple positives from the same individual could also be getting counted as separate "cases". Since they've also been including any deaths where the patient had chiropteran flu but didn't necessarily die of it, the figures coming out of the UK are as useful as a chocolate teapot in the hand calling the kettle black. It's reasonable to assume this is true of pretty much every nation, really. After all, every government is sneaky as fuck and made up of fallible people.

They're also saying contact tracing will be possibly ready for mid-May when they have "an initial 18,000 contact tracers in place". Bit late, by that point you'd have more luck tracking and tracing chlamydia in Essex. Any excuse for them to roll out an even more invasive cyber-tracker under the guise of saving lives (the same excuse they used to convince people it's illegal to be outside). I don't know how they expect to coordinate that when they don't even have the police knowing what the current protocol is. "Oi, oi, wots all this? You got your vaccine loicence, outside loicence, tracking app loicence, facemask loicence, and list of everywhere you're going to be for the next month and why? You owe us £1,000 for being a silly bugger and risking loives!"

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12 hours ago, FundinStrongarm said:

Test trace and treat/isolate has proved successful there. Many countries have wasted weeks of time not ramping up testing to where it needs to be.

the only reason South Korea deployed soo quickly is because of SARS 2003.  they had the infrastructure in place to mobilize and deploy quickly.  the contact trace South Korea used is from Taiwan, but the database for sharing info across the country, from government to hospitals, to businesses to users was already in place.  so there was no initial set up or investment cost.

other countries aren't guilty of wasting time.  other countries simply don't have the infrastructure in place & to do so requires government regulation of the private sector and bringing online cell coverage that is affordable and easily adopted by the general public.  this is much more complex than simply tracking a parcel traveling through a mail service provider.  you are talking about sharing personal data over multiple agencies and businesses.  Security and privacy are huge issues as well.

12 hours ago, FundinStrongarm said:

The crucial questions are rights guarantees and sunset provisions, imo.

and what happens when the next pandemic arises.  if you grant this infrastructure the right be built and operate;  assume it will be permanent.  be VERY meticulous and careful with what you grant, as the potential for abuse is HUGE!

11 hours ago, cossieuk said:

Those that tested positive again were likely due to false positives, due to the test being unable to tell the difference between the live virus an d the dead virus

that wouldn't be the only area where testing is failing.  people forget this virus is pretty much brand new.  from either late October - mid November of 2019.  additionally all the early mapping of the virus from Doctors in Wuhan was destroyed.  the only early analysis the world has, is what was provided for by the CCP.  the response and production of all testing, therapeutics & vaccination is wholly dependent on the accuracy of that initial model.

regardless, what is still entirely missing is a forensic profile of the history of this virus.  another huge component in the production of accurate and effective countermeasures.

11 hours ago, cossieuk said:

So the UK government...

Also we still dont have any contact tracing in place in the UK, so the chances of the lock down being loosened next week are slim.

early signs point to the UK massively botching this "contact tracing" as well.

not just location & test result or no...  but tons of private information spilling out to anyone with the least bit of technical savvy.

no western government should be rushing blindly into this without great caution and forethought.


whilst Taiwan is admirable & a good place to look to for inspiration...   i never said we should flat out copy their example (goes for Singapore & South Korea as well)

"we" in the West should be coming up with our OWN solutions.  knowing the difference between: "the squeaky wheel gets the grease" VS."the nail that stands out gets pounded down"  will also go miles towards deploying something that actually works, whilst simultaneously not crippling our civil liberties.

also one size, does not fit all.  multiple approaches will be needed, tailor fit to specific regions.  the more affordable the solution, the more likely to be widely adopted Vs widely resisted.

& news media who loves showing any kind of viewer porn from plane crashes, to environmental disasters, to political intrigue, to plagues...  are the last fucking clowns on earth we need to be listening too for guidance, or allowing to steer the narrative.

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so how many here think this virus is:

1.) almost finished its course and will be over soon...

2.) will come in waves (likely in the fall) and play out for a year or 2 more, (similar to Spanish Flu...)

3.) will not abate in the summer, (no waves) but will just continuously roll on infecting people for years to come until it has mutated to the point where it has no potency left and is no longer a threat...

4.) is with us forever...

5.) something else, (state your theory and why you think it likely...)

...

i am in category 3 myself.


additionally, will there be:

A.) an effective vaccine

B.) therapeutics that will work.

C.) mitigating factors of good health and hygiene are the best bet.

D.) nothing will work, we are all doomed.

E.) something else... share it with the class.  ;)

...

myself, number C and B combined.  no A.

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2 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

so how many here think this virus is:

1.) almost finished its course and will be over soon...

2.) will come in waves (likely in the fall) and play out for a year or 2 more, (similar to Spanish Flu...)

3.) will not abate in the summer, (no waves) but will just continuously roll on infecting people for years to come until it has mutated to the point where it has no potency left and is no longer a threat...

4.) is with us forever...

5.) something else, (state your theory and why you think it likely...)

...

i am in category 3 myself.


additionally, will there be:

A.) an effective vaccine

B.) therapeutics that will work.

C.) mitigating factors of good health and hygiene are the best bet.

D.) nothing will work, we are all doomed.

E.) something else... share it with the class.  ;)

...

myself, number C and B combined.  no A.

I'm on 4 though I think it's going to be treated as less of a threat than it currently is and become just another in the long list, and B/C with a slight bit of A in that I think any vaccination or even natural immunity will be pretty weak, with the former making it only marginally harder to catch and the latter making it hit a little softer but not stop it.

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4 + E

 

E = it will become like flu, with the caveat that the ecomomic (and therefore political) upheaval will be very, very serious. Mind you -  flu IS deadly

"Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year." 

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I've been looking at some stats from the Office for National Statistics for England & Wales deaths and this is what I've found:

 

Total deaths for 2020 up to 17th April: 207,311

Death average for the same period of previous 5 years: 185,190

Deaths caused by respiratory disease to 17th April: 28,404

Deaths caused by respiratory disease from 2019 for the equivalent period: 28,812

Deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on certificate: 19,093

 

Also, I compared the deaths for different age groups and found this difference between 2019 and 2020:

 

<1 : -46

1 - 14 : -72

15 - 44 : -141

46 - 64 : 1,348

65+ : 20,695

 

So old people are dying but there's been no real increase in deaths from respiratory illnesses, which this virus is. Could be that respiratory deaths from COVID-19 overlap considerably with expected respiratory deaths, but then where are these additional deaths coming from? Or if the additional are entirely because of COVID-19 with no overlap, why aren't they being counted in the respiratory disease figures? Possibly they've separated them out this year to make the COVID-19 more visible, but then that does mean there's 3,000 deaths unaccounted for, not to mention that those 19,093 people weren't necessarily killed by the virus, but simply died while infected, which adds to the numbers of extra deaths but without much explanation (though there's likely old people who have died and not been tested). And all of that is without trying to figure where the young people with underlying health conditions apparently fit in.

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One that this may account for the extra deaths in the drop in people going to A&E when they should.  People not getting treatment right away and waiting a few days till it is to late.  Over the past month or so there has been a drop of 50% in visits to A&E.  

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what do you think about the recent reports of new Kawasaki like symptoms or inflammation in children?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/children-covid-19-experiencing-symptoms-similar-kawasaki-disease/story?id=70393379

https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/kawasaki-disease-toxic-shock-syndrome-21938439

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/who-is-investigating-whether-coronavirus-causes-rare-inflammatory-disease-in-some-kids.html

more secondary conditions due to immune system functioning out of whack.

regardless, seems to be a whole hell of a lot the scientific & medical community is still performing guess work around what is going on.  maybe handing China a big pass wasn't the best idea after all.


the month of May is underway as is Spring.  next month Summer officially begins.  we will soon see just how much this abates, if at all.

i have notice a single percentage drop in critical cases World Wide, so maybe there is a slight improvement on how to deal with patients who arrive at viral loads that require ventilation.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/how-a-free-extremely-low-risk-er-technique-is-saving-lives-from-coronavirus-215640425.html

Ecuador still has my eye...  something very odd going on there.  a VERY virulent strain of the virus it seems, or perhaps some other factor, but reporting is fishy as ever.

India seems to be on the rise as well and given the population there...  regardless, Summer will be interesting.

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14 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

the month of May is underway as is Spring.  next month Summer officially begins.  we will soon see just how much this abates, if at all.

Even if the warmer weather has some effect, it is going into Winter in the southern hemisphere.  So this could lead to a lot more cases elsewhere in the world, especially in poorer countries that have little healthcare

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the simulation is breaking...

July 13 2003 Episode of the Dead Zone titled, "Plague"

notice the episodes cure...


Dec.31 2019:  27 confirmed cases         - no death reported


Jan.19 2020:  219 confirmed cases        - 3 dead


Jan.25 2020:  1,350 confirmed cases      - 41 dead


Feb.1  2020:  11,946 confirmed cases     - 259 dead


Feb.13 2020:  60,328 confirmed cases     - 1,370 dead


Mar.7  2020:  102,133 confirmed cases    - 3,488 dead


Mar.27 2020:  527,839 confirmed cases    - 23,674 dead


Apr.3  2020:  1,010,000 confirmed cases  - 51,577 dead


Apr.10 2020:  1,560,000 confirmed cases  - 95,039 dead


Apr.16 2020:  2,030,000 confirmed cases  - 136,320 dead


Apr.29 2020:  3,050,000 confirmed cases  - 216,563 dead


May 5  2020:  3,540,000 confirmed cases  - 250,977 dead

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The UK now has the most deaths of any country in Europe, and yet they are still not doing contact tracing.  The app is now being tested in the Isle of Wight, but this is far to late.  It should have been ready weeks ago.

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1 hour ago, cossieuk said:

The UK now has the most deaths of any country in Europe, and yet they are still not doing contact tracing.  The app is now being tested in the Isle of Wight, but this is far to late.  It should have been ready weeks ago.

Tiawan, Singapore & South Korea did not have contact tracing for SARS 2003.

image.thumb.jpeg.6112fdc6d8b10418cb35f297b7523bb5.jpeg

those countries developed it after getting hit hard back then.  it did not happen overnight for them either.

and once again, the App is not the only component, but having that synced with hospitals, government agencies and businesses.

blue tooth GPS tracking is already a part of most cell phone and personal device tech.  a simple tracking App on its own will do nothing if it isn't networked across a region with multiple agencies AND businesses. 

how would this go over if it tracked people with AIDS?  where they went, (bath houses, minutes long stops on some remote park trail...  who was also in a 2 meter vicinity with them for about the same amount of time?  maybe even with a public figure.  how much time did George Michel spend in park restrooms?  politicians?

& this tracking profile...  potential employers can access, or insurance companies, etc.  don't assume it will only be benevolent parties only intending to help who access this info.

you may assume every encounter you had in the past 2 weeks is entirely innocent.  what if someone contextualizes it differently than you?

this is not something you want to rush, or it will most assuredly bite you in the ass down the road.

altruistic thinking may have the frog carry the scorpion across the river, but mutual death is no guarantee they both reach the other side.

take a little time and make sure this APP isn't a scorpion in nature, just hitching a ride.

Edited by LasraelLarson
to add the SARS 2003 data in chart form

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Covid-19 as declared a pandemic 8 weeks ago.  We know weeks before that that this was going to become an issue.  Why did it take so long to start developing the app.  Also the app being tested in the UK is centralised with users data shared with a central database and the NHS if the user declares that they have symptoms. 

The information commissioner's office has suggested that a decentralised approach would better protect users privacy.  If people feel their privacy is being compromised then they may not use the app.  There has also been talk of legal challenges to the app due to potential privacy concerns

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9 hours ago, cossieuk said:

Covid-19 as declared a pandemic 8 weeks ago.

and what were they saying about face masks 8 weeks ago?

how long before that were they claiming no human to human transmission?

and now they are saying it is unlikely manufactured in a lab.

i wonder how long it will take for this latest narrative to fall?

it is amazing how history is either memory-holed, or met with blind eyes.  the recent situation with H5N1 that is well documented...

The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate

Scientists Brace for Media Storm Around Controversial Flu Studies

this particular group of folk (who just so happen to be invested in things like remdesivir) can only cover their collective asses so long.

regardless, the constantly shifting narrative in addition to the obfuscation of making the focus racism and xenophobia to deflect away from China...  IS 100% to blame for the response around the entire globe.  only Singapore & Taiwan (i guess Hong Kong as well) managed to dodge this early & South Korea (initially caught off guard) adapted quickly, but they already had the mechanisms in place.

additionally maybe freaking out & wasting time over this:

wasn't the best use of funds and focus...


9 hours ago, cossieuk said:

We know weeks before that that this was going to become an issue.

and the predictive models employed have all been off by a considerable margin.

have the UK done anything at ports of entry yet, to either restrict, or competently screen entry?  again most western countries have failed here.

9 hours ago, cossieuk said:

Why did it take so long to start developing the app. 

maybe intuitively the west collectively KNOWS the dangers of openly spying on its citizenry.

also,  if developers can't SELL user data, there is no profit motive.  do you honestly blindly trust these companies to not recoup their expense & hope to make profit on the venture?  again this will require massive regulation to avoid.

funding is also a big question and right now globally Governments are printing money and increasing the national debt while simultaneously devaluing the currency.

...

i hate to say it, but right now with Covid19 about to massively spike in cheap labor and manufacturing source countries like Mexico and India...  India was a hopeful alternative to Chinas cheap global manufacturing dominance...

On 3/12/2020 at 8:52 PM, LasraelLarson said:

many Ivory towers will be shattered over this mess.

will actually long term help as big money player, "OUTS"  are about to collapse as well.  they are gonna have to spend on the infrastructure, or die out.

...

anyway Cos,  if you effectively wanted to see Apps deployed faster, you needed to start the griping for such back in early January (at the latest.)  if you could just point to your post history where that happened...   🤷‍♂️🤷‍♀️

if you wanted clout, you would have started right at the tail end of SARS 2003...  like Singapore & Taiwan did.

consolation...  look at that SARS 2003 chart.  Toronto Canada got hit as well...  Canada learned nothing from it.  we are still fumbling the ball here.  most western countries are.  also sad are the numbers following Chinas example.  HUGE mistake!

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https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/tanzanian-paw-paw-tests-positive-for-covid-19-president-magufuli/ar-BB13xpD0

Supposedly, there were a high number of "positive" results for COVID-19 from a lab in Tanzania, so the president there had a bunch of fake samples (including fruit and a goat) sent to it and caught them out. If this is true, then either the lab is corrupt and forging results, incompetent and producing unreliable results, the testing kits themselves were flawed, or (as the president seems to suggest) there is a global conspiracy to produce false results to add to the stats.

I've seen a lot of people dismiss this as just a fake story from a corrupt African nation, and not without understandable reason. They're not exactly a reliable bunch down there. But then who is reliable these days? Every country has its mistakes, and cover-ups, and incompetence, and outright laziness, some are just much better at hiding it than others. How many other nations have fudged the numbers, either intentionally or unintentionally (or a combo)? We already know the UK is counting any death with supposed COVID-19 in the system as a COVID-19 death, there could be no way of knowing fully what other dishonest, shady practices they're doing.

I think Altreg asked earlier on in the thread if any of us knew anyone who has been diagnosed, and I'm still in the camp of "no confirmation but a lot of speculative bouts of illness". At this point, even if I did know someone who had been, I'd still doubt the legitimacy of any test regarding it as an outcome. Though I still currently believe it exists, I'm leaning more and more into the conspiracy side of things and don't believe this virus to be as claimed, including fatality numbers, the danger it represents, its origins, or its prevalence. It only takes a simple misdiagnosis of a virus with symptoms which are commonplace for others like it in those age groups or a faulty test to result in a new statistic.

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