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32 minutes ago, Doro said:

They always do for PMs, especially Tory ones.

Boris deserves  the flak.  Not stopping the football matches was a bad decision.  Thankfully the FA's have decided to do so.  Well the is not a significant risk in large gathering, having 500 people means that you need paramedics on had, taking them away from were they are needed.  The governments plan seems to be prioritising the economy over lives

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1 minute ago, cossieuk said:

Boris deserves  the flak.  Not stopping the football matches was a bad decision.  Thankfully the FA's have decided to do so.  Well the is not a significant risk in large gathering, having 500 people means that you need paramedics on had, taking them away from were they are needed.  The governments plan seems to be prioritising the economy over lives

As harsh as it sounds, the economy is vastly more important than a minority of lives. Hit the economy hard enough and you lose lives anyway, but at least with a relatively stable one you can focus on long-term issues that benefit the majority. The nature of this virus means it's going to spread regardless, it's just about how quickly and how capable the systems in place are at dealing with it. Pragmatically, it makes sense to not hit the economy for the sake of a dragged-out crisis. And there's an uncomfortable silver-lining to the virus in that those most at risk are the sick and elderly...

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 22 minutes ago, Doro said:

You could probably do with looking up what a percentage is.

you know this little image you posted here:

1 hour ago, Doro said:

Image result for coronavirus spread graph by country

only Hong Kong and Singapore have been aggressive with Quarantine. 

regardless that chart just shows the rough doubling factor every 4 days in action with no quarantine controls.  South Korea is the only one very recently bilking the trend.

why is the 3rd most populous country (US) with 4.24% of the worlds population behind Germany the 19th most populous with only 1.07% of the worlds people?  ...  or Iran which has (or had) similar numbers to Germany.

...

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6 minutes ago, LasraelLarson said:

with no quarantine controls.

As I said, Trump's supposed taskforce did nothing.

6 minutes ago, LasraelLarson said:

why is the 3rd most populous country (US) with 4.24% of the worlds population behind Germany the 19th most populous with only 1.07% of the worlds people?  ...  or Iran which has (or had) similar numbers to Germany.

Fewer people travel to the US than EU, and fewer Americans travel abroad than Europeans, so it's not that much of a mystery. Iran is a different kettle of fish with a number of factors contributing to it.

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1 hour ago, LasraelLarson said:

why is the 3rd most populous country (US) with 4.24% of the worlds population behind Germany the 19th most populous with only 1.07% of the worlds people?  ...  or Iran which has (or had) similar numbers to Germany.

...

The US has a much larger landmass than both Germany and Iran combined,

US Land mass 9.834 million km²

Germany land mass 357,386 km²

Iran Land mass  1.648 million km²

It is possible that the virus will spread quicker in more densely population countries like Germany and Iran

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19 minutes ago, Doro said:

As I said, Trump's supposed taskforce did nothing.

heh.

January 31 2020  which was all Trump really.

as far as the functions day to day and actions of this Taskforce...   until recent press conferences, that is indeed really hard to tell exactly what they do.  ;)

37 minutes ago, Doro said:

Fewer people travel to the US than EU

so are you trying to say...  because EU is like one border-less country...  i can't take Germany, France or Spain in isolation?

i specifically mentioned Germany, but if you treat all EU countries like one...  that number is then MUCH MUCH MUCH higher.  might even surpass China's totals, which is the point of origin...

unless your on the left, or actually China...  in which case talking about point of origin, or flash point is not allowed.

as for actual travel...  France (globally #1) leads the US, but the US is ahead of Germany, so not sure this correlation holds water based on actual travel.

49 minutes ago, Doro said:

Iran is a different kettle of fish with a number of factors contributing to it.

let me guess...  quality of life... Y/N?   what other factors?


4 minutes ago, cossieuk said:

The US has a much larger landmass than both Germany and Iran combined,

US Land mass 9.834 million km²

Germany land mass 357,386 km²

Iran Land mass  1.648 million km²

It is possible that the virus will spread quicker in more densely population countries like Germany and Iran

concentration of people makes sense. Iran density isn't anywhere near Germany though, yet hit much harder... 

and "Northern"  Italy jumping out like it did...  why?


me...  i'd be curious to track travel from Wuhan Province in China...    and i would track that data 3 months prior to first official reports.

they tracked similar things in the past, like with the traveling of AIDS patients.  should be well within the realms of capabilities with current technology.

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2 hours ago, Doro said:

As harsh as it sounds, the economy is vastly more important than a minority of lives. Hit the economy hard enough and you lose lives anyway, but at least with a relatively stable one you can focus on long-term issues that benefit the majority. The nature of this virus means it's going to spread regardless, it's just about how quickly and how capable the systems in place are at dealing with it. Pragmatically, it makes sense to not hit the economy for the sake of a dragged-out crisis. And there's an uncomfortable silver-lining to the virus in that those most at risk are the sick and elderly...

Johnson's plan for 60% to get infected for herd immunity, which is just insane, will have a devastating effect on our economy in the long term.  Focus on slowing the spread, and saving lives.   One the number of infected swamps the NHS the death rate will rise as there will be some that could have survived with medical help but wont be able to get it.  Slowing the spread could minimise the impact on the economy 

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2 hours ago, warspeech said:

This thread has a description of the strategy and the reasoning for it/possible risks (I think the thread is about 15 tweets total)

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538?s=20

 

 

The whole herd immunity plan is based of the premise that you cant get reinfected, but there are reports of people in China testing positive after recovering.  So either these people had not fully recovered, are the outliers that can get reinfected or maybe herd immunity wont work.  A lot of lives will be lost in this massive gamble by the government 

Also a bunch of scientists in the UK have written an open letter saying the policy will risk more lives than necessary

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

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I agree that it's based on assumptions that may be faulty, and also needs those assumptions to fall in line perfectly to pull it off.  Quite the gamble they're taking.

(and speaking as one who is both sick AND 60+ it hits close to home).  I've got a small supply of food set away and will keep building it over the next week, then ration as needed while I stay in as much as I can.  I live north of a growing hot zone and may see travel severely restricted soon.

 

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7 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

January 31 2020  which was all Trump really.

You mean after multiple airlines already stopped travel to and from China, and other nations and blocs were announcing full travel bans as options? Gee, I wonder where that idea came from. That taskforce sure paid for itself.

7 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

so are you trying to say...  because EU is like one border-less country...  i can't take Germany, France or Spain in isolation?

Yes.

7 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

i specifically mentioned Germany, but if you treat all EU countries like one...  that number is then MUCH MUCH MUCH higher.

And tourism is much much much higher. The chances of hitting that critical threshold where the virus can't be contained is greater, so the virus spread earlier. You're comparing the US a week in to places a couple of weeks in and acting surprised about the difference. The rate is what you should be looking at, because right now the US is on track to be dealing with the same situation as EU countries who were too afraid of being politically correct to put in proper procedures.

7 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

let me guess...  quality of life... Y/N?   what other factors?

Corruption, incompetence, lifestyles, education, economic issues, etc.

 

7 hours ago, cossieuk said:

Johnson's plan for 60% to get infected for herd immunity, which is just insane, will have a devastating effect on our economy in the long term.  Focus on slowing the spread, and saving lives.   One the number of infected swamps the NHS the death rate will rise as there will be some that could have survived with medical help but wont be able to get it.  Slowing the spread could minimise the impact on the economy 

It's inevitable at this point that so many will catch it, and it will be more devastating to the economy to keep enforcing half-baked shutdowns (that won't even be in place for long enough anyway) than to treat it more appropriately as what it is for the vast number of people: a cold/flu. If anything, the minority of vulnerable people need to self-isolate to keep from catching it, while everyone else takes it. Right now, with the media acting like it's a damn zombie plague, the panic alone is worse than the mortality rate on infrastructure and the economy, and that is what will hit the NHS. Simple plan: educate on symptoms so that healthy people take it on the chin, then sick/elderly people take necessary precautions and get NHS attention if/when they need it.

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3 hours ago, Doro said:

Right now, with the media acting like it's a damn zombie plague, the panic alone is worse than the mortality rate

Anything for ratings. Being informative and over hyping the truth are two different sides of the same coin.  Sometimes it better to exist in limited ignorance than to live in the instant information world of the internet. These universes that self perpetuate on the frenzy of the gullible dimwits looking for some meaning, offering opinions that make not one bit of difference, in the real world, are what seemingly is the substance of society today. The media would rather feed these frenzies than offer actual information worth knowing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he-has-17700-bottles-of-hand-sanitizer-and-nowhere-to-sell-them/ar-BB11blvS?li=BBnb7Kz

Opportunist slugs don't make this current situation any better. I hope the scumbag loses money.

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Wait, so this virus only hits people that are elderly, and more affects the women than the men...

In other words it is primed to wipe out most of the problematic politicians in the US Congress...

How is this a bad thing?

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Modbreak: I thought it would make sense to split this off as a new thread, considering it's a global thing.

 

-

Back to normal: Looks like the screenings in the US for those returning from Europe aren't going well. The inefficiency is resulting in people waiting around in crowded areas, a perfect situation to spread the virus.

Meanwhile, flights between UK and Spain with Jet2 are getting cancelled mid-air and turning around. People stranded on both ends.

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1 hour ago, cossieuk said:

So apparently the Trump administration offered large sums of money to a German company working on a vaccine so the the US would have exclusive rights to the vaccine

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

What is wrong with these people

I think at this point a shorter list would be what's right with them. Imagine wanting to keep the rest of the world from a potential solution for the sake of some capitalist power grab.

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Karma in action.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tennessee-ag-cracks-down-on-men-who-hoarded-thousands-of-sanitizer-bottles-amid-shopper-scare/ar-BB11dK4q?li=BBnbcA1

I hope the fucker has to empty his bank account to pay fines for price gouging. Giving away his greed stock after making a profit isn't enough. His forehead should be tattooed with the word.

SCUMBAG

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1 hour ago, Splay said:

Karma in action.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tennessee-ag-cracks-down-on-men-who-hoarded-thousands-of-sanitizer-bottles-amid-shopper-scare/ar-BB11dK4q?li=BBnbcA1

I hope the fucker has to empty his bank account to pay fines for price gouging. Giving away his greed stock after making a profit isn't enough. His forehead should be tattooed with the word.

SCUMBAG

Yep, these opportunist parasites need a slap. But biggest ones are getting away with it and making a mint: the media.

They keep spreading hysteria and misinformation for their own profit, encouraging scenarios where hoarding becomes attractive to those that panic and those that exploit alike. I've seen it everywhere, but this example from the BBC took the cake for me (because they try to act like they're a bastion of honest journalism, and we are forced to pay them for that lie).

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51892402

This is what the opening bit says now (because they could change it again without mentioning it):

-

"Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

In an open letter, the 229 specialists in disciplines ranging from mathematics to genetics - though no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseases - say the UK's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary"."

-

 

But this is what they published the story as, and it sat on their front page:

-

"Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

Hundreds of scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary"."

-

 

A pretty clear change. Before, it was just scientists in general, not even "some", but hundreds of scientists, with no mention that these "scientists" were mostly PhD students and math lecturers with no qualifications or experience in the subject. I was around these sorts of people in my uni days, they're just lefty virtue-signallers that like to pretend they're important (as you'd expect for British universities), so they try to do some official pointless gesture for whatever issue piques their interest at the time. You might as well get a letter signed at a local pub, they're that irrelevant. It's a non-story but they chose to go with a more sensationalised approach to make it one, then later edited it secretly after it slipped out of view. Now I see this same story had spread over social media, with more of their kind pointing at it and saying "look, even scientists think so!", all patting each other's backs, while the gullible believe them and start more panic-buying. The media keeps lighting the sparks, the over-emotional left self-righteously (but mostly unintentionally) fan the flames, the parasites add fuel to it to exploit the situation, and it's the idiot masses that get burned.

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20 hours ago, Doro said:

I think at this point a shorter list would be what's right with them. Imagine wanting to keep the rest of the world from a potential solution for the sake of some capitalist power grab.

I wont not bee surprised to find out that it was his own business that would get the exclusive rights, so he can make a fortune off of it.

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45 minutes ago, cossieuk said:

I wont not bee surprised to find out that it was his own business that would get the exclusive rights, so he can make a fortune off of it.

I doubt this could be true and not already known. When the history of this virus unfolds, if somehow it were true and Americans did nothing about it. Well, that would be a sad day. Not only would it show future Presidents they can have excess prosperity after leaving office, but why wait, because they can do it while in office. In the event it is true, then that would make Trump a super-hoarder. Something which I never condone or admire.

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12 minutes ago, Splay said:

I doubt this could be true and not already known. When the history of this virus unfolds, if somehow it were true and Americans did nothing about it. Well, that would be a sad day. Not only would it show future Presidents they can have excess prosperity after leaving office, but why wait, because they can do it while in office. In the event it is true, then that would make Trump a super-hoarder. Something which I never condone or admire.

Not saying it is true, just it would not surprise me.

So the latest advise from Boris is to avoid unnecessary contact with other dont go to pubs, restaurants, cinema etc, yet the schools and universities are to stay open.  How does this make any sense.  The secondary school I went to has over 1500 pupils and is 1 or 3 that size where I live, surely this is a mass gathering.  

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1 hour ago, cossieuk said:

Not saying it is true, just it would not surprise me.

So the latest advise from Boris is to avoid unnecessary contact with other dont go to pubs, restaurants, cinema etc, yet the schools and universities are to stay open.  How does this make any sense.  The secondary school I went to has over 1500 pupils and is 1 or 3 that size where I live, surely this is a mass gathering.  

The only reason so far is to prevent parents having to stay home to babysit their kids instead of doing any needed jobs (unis don't make much sense for that, but they're normally only a dozen or so in a big lecture hall, as long as they aren't rimming each other they'll be alright... oh fuck, they're screwed), and that kids seem to be safest from the disease (spread and symptoms are lower). But semi-enforced lockdowns don't work to begin with, it's either totalitarian or personal responsibility that's needed.

I've been back in Japan for a while now, and they've shut random things down here in Tokyo (schools, some tourist buildings, a few events), but left tons more open. I go to Shibuya and the place is packed. I pop to a temple like Asakusa and it's rammed with people. Pubs and restaurants are still serving, but I guess most only fit a dozen or two customers in them anyway. Harajuku gets waves of tourists every time a train pulls up to the station. Shinjuku is still a hellhole of commuters. I actively avoid trains at rush hour now because I'm often too big to fit with so many people and closed spaces panic me. All those kids out of school, they're all outside with each other anyway fucking about. I've got a park outside my place and they're everywhere. Even the old folks from the retirement building round the corner use the same park, I can hear them doing their morning exercise routine out there right now. There's still tons of human interaction, tons of crowds, but the virus is spreading much slower here than back home.

I put it down to their culture and personal approach to it. People wear face-masks anyway when sick, so coughing/sneezing is better contained by them, but now most people wear them anyway (there's queues for face-masks every morning and they're sold out fast). They keep their hands clean. There's less physical contact, more bowing. There's more variety of smaller supermarkets available so as big as the population is, the actual aspects of everyday life are pretty localised in dozens of small clusters instead of, for example, a town centre or an Asda 17 miles wide that caters to multiple towns. And old people are going out early in the morning to do their bits before the rest wake up (except for me and my permanent jet lag).

It seems to be as long as you're conscious of practising good hygiene, the virus slows right down. It's not stopping, mind you, but it's certainly slower than UK (it took the UK a week to get to Japan's 3 week figures).

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On 3/17/2020 at 7:10 AM, Doro said:

The only reason so far is to prevent parents having to stay home to babysit their kids instead of doing any needed jobs (unis don't make much sense for that, but they're normally only a dozen or so in a big lecture hall, as long as they aren't rimming each other they'll be alright... oh fuck, they're screwed), and that kids seem to be safest from the disease (spread and symptoms are lower). But semi-enforced lockdowns don't work to begin with, it's either totalitarian or personal responsibility that's needed.

That may be true for the UK, but on some of the major US campuses there are several low level classes that can have several hundred students, not to mention a college campus population greater than 30k - which becomes a problem as having the university evacuate would devastate the host city's economy... not to mention all the foreign students that have to go home now.

Quote

It seems to be as long as you're conscious of practising good hygiene, the virus slows right down. It's not stopping, mind you, but it's certainly slower than UK (it took the UK a week to get to Japan's 3 week figures).

I think that's the general gameplan, as I've heard that the virus does worse in warmer weather so if we can slow most of the population getting infected until summer, we might be able to mitigate most of the issues related to coronavirus simply by managing how fast people get infected.

 

Edited by Doro
Fixing derail
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19 hours ago, Almagnus1 said:

I think that's the general gameplan, as I've heard that the virus does worse in warmer weather so if we can slow most of the population getting infected until summer, we might be able to mitigate most of the issues related to coronavirus simply by managing how fast people get infected.

Even in warmer climates it is still spreading, just look at Australia where temperatures are in the mid 20 C range.

Also even if the warmer weather does help, the southern hemisphere is heading towards winter.     

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