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COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

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9 minutes ago, Doro said:

but one isn't secretly a shark that's been overlooked.

how bout one that jumped from animal (bat) to animal (pangolin) to human in a wet market in Wuhan & one that broke containment in a lab in Wuhan?

again this plays to the uncertainty about asymptomatic spread via air, vs via skin shedding.  and both scenarios plausibly being contagious without symptoms.  either carriers need masks...  or everyone does.

and the whole interplay between the World Health organization and China since end of December, up to the present.

21 minutes ago, Doro said:

It's also SARS-like in its viral type, not just symptoms. Both are coronaviruses, as is the common cold, and MERS. They tend to share the same sorts of symptoms and mostly respiratory based, so it's not like suddenly this one will be like the Ebola virus or mutate into HIV.

if this is only natures "fury" i would agree.

atypical behavior from traditional corona-viruses to something more like a retro-virus, or hybrid behavior is just the kind of mad scientist conspiracy stuff one would expect from lab cooking, or a country that clones pandas back from extinction, or has gene editing babies controversy hanging over their collective heads.

it may only be natures fury.  time will tell.  and fortunately that won't take forever.  even with China covering things up early on.

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2 hours ago, Splay said:

*snip*

That was tough to sit through, but then all US late night shows are like that for me, though the lack of forced laughter after every sentence was a relief, maybe more of them should be done without an audience. Still, the "comedian" who gets other people to write his bland jokes had a few decent points, even if they were fruit hanging lower than a pensioner's bag in a gym locker room (my team wrote that for me).

However, I've yet to see the usual vocal lot offer a viable approach to this virus, instead just repeating the mantra of "stay in doors". Obviously, countries can't be kept in permanent lock-downs. A few weeks of semi-isolation won't change anything while the figures are as low as they are (it's sort of like sitting in a box slowly filling with water and holding your breath when the water is still only at your ankles), and even a just few months of it are going to devastate the economy, massively impact a lot of freelance/self-employed people, and kill more than this virus will as the long-term impact on poverty takes hold. There's no way to keep society functioning with a lock-down, and it's not "flatting the sombrero" (as Bojo in the UK so awkwardly put it), it's just delaying when the peak is going to hit. While useful to try to get properly prepped in the areas current lacking, it's extremely costly and inefficient. Unless they do a post-code lottery of who is under lock-down each month, to try to split the peak into multiple smaller ones, it's an inevitable outcome that health services will not cope with the demand asked of them.

The approach needs to change dramatically, and part of that is re-opening society for the majority. Carry on like we would with any other flu/cold-like contagion (but keep the ability to work from home if an employee wishes, because choice is paramount), practice responsible hygiene, change what can be easily changed in terms of lifestyle, educate the masses on the truth instead of media fear-mongering so that they don't waste the time of health services, get hospitals properly supplied, and only lock-down those who are old and vulnerable (with all the resources needed piled on them to get them through it) until an actual solution is found. Things are going to be much worse than what the virus alone would cause otherwise if governments stay on this current course.

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Looks like the virus panic has caught up to Japan (ignoring Hokkaido, they panicked earlier). There's a suggested isolation in place this weekend, and the supermarkets are packed with shoppers but void of goods. The politicians are saying while this pseudo-lockdown is optional, they're also suggesting if people don't willingly do it then they'll enforce it next weekend. Now that the Olympics are on hold, they don't have any reason to potentially hide the numbers any more (stories of people being turned away from testing for the virus were getting common). Here in Tokyo, there's supposedly less than 200 infected, but I doubt those numbers. They're certainly not going to be as bad as back in the UK, or in the US, but there's no way they're as low as suggested. Cultural differences can only go so far when you're dealing with a cash-based society and a virus where half the infected are unaware they're even spreading it. Looks like they're rushing to catch up after trying to poker-face the situation for the last couple of months.

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I guess if I was stranded somewhere, Japan wouldn't be a bad place to be. Not suggesting you are. I watched videos of the open markets and there looks to be some tasty food and produce being sold at them. It would probably be a fun way to learn Japanese, since my Japanese vocabulary consist of about 20 words.

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12 minutes ago, Splay said:

I guess if I was stranded somewhere, Japan wouldn't be a bad place to be. Not suggesting you are. I watched videos of the open markets and there looks to be some tasty food and produce being sold at them. It would probably be a fun way to learn Japanese, since my Japanese vocabulary consist of about 20 words.

There's a lot of stranding going on all over the place and that's got to suck absolute balls. I've got another year here, maybe, so I'm fingers crossed the stranded bit dies down by then, but there's been a couple of people I know who had to go back to the UK this week for fear of being caught out by border closures or flight cancellations, and a few more who are struggling with AirBnB not giving refunds for properties after about mid-April. Personally, I think the food here is overrated, but then I like myself pies, and cheese, and big chunks of meat, which they woefully lack.

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Looks like the US has nearly as may cases as Italy, and it is doubling every 3-4 days.  By Easter, the date Trumps hopes everything goes back to normal there could be over 500000 cases assuming they can test enough people

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6 hours ago, cossieuk said:

Looks like the US has nearly as may cases as Italy, and it is doubling every 3-4 days.  By Easter, the date Trumps hopes everything goes back to normal there could be over 500000 cases assuming they can test enough people

It's cause we're doing far more testing than other countries.  When you test more, you find more.  Key thing to watch is the fatality rate, as we could be looking at a 3%, 1%, or .1% kill rate for the virus.... but infection numbers without the rest of the data means you can't really draw conclusions.

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On 3/25/2020 at 7:29 AM, LasraelLarson said:

atypical behavior from traditional corona-viruses to something more like a retro-virus, or hybrid behavior

highlighting something i found rather interesting recently.

Amy Klobuchars husband contracted China Syndrome very recently and she has been doing interviews making a claim that he was coughing up blood.  now is this for dramatic effect, or is she telling the truth?  i'd lean that this would not be something you'd lie about:

and true to form, she says almost identical talking points in the retelling of this story that starts around the 3:15 mark here:

i point to this because what i have seen in cases that take off, is all sorts of weirdness that shows rather atypical behavior.  vomiting blood doesn't really seem typical for cold and flu virus's.  neither does fitful body tremors:

and with the recent Hantavirus popping up, doesn't help with clarity having another "animal" potentially confusing the data.

the genetic mapping data from this virus really needs to be examined and exposed.  why are there so many instances of people feeling fine, or having minor symptoms, that all of a sudden turn dramatic?  what is this virus doing to RNA (potentially DNA) at the molecular level?

seems important if testing data is to be truly reliable and not potentially misleading.

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On 3/23/2020 at 10:04 PM, Doro said:

Predictions on top 3 for Friday? I'm guessing China doesn't change much because of obvious covering up so it slips to 3rd place. Italy at 2nd place on 85,000. US best at coronavirus, they know more than anyone else about coronavirus, on 100,000.

It's Friday opening, for me at least, let's see where we're at so far.

Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Tot Deaths/
1M pop
USA 83,672 +15,461 1,209 +182 1,864 80,599 2,122 253 4
China 81,285   3,287   74,051 3,947 1,235 56 2
Italy 80,589 +6,203 8,215 +712 10,361 62,013 3,612 1,333 136
Spain 57,786 +8,271 4,365 +718 7,015 46,406 3,166 1,236 93
Germany 43,938 +6,615 267 +61 5,673 37,998 23 524 3
Iran 29,406 +2,389 2,234 +157 10,457 16,715 2,746 350 27
France 29,155 +3,922 1,696 +365 4,948 22,511 3,375 447 26
Switzerland 11,811 +914 191 +38 131 11,489 141 1,365 22
UK 11,658 +2,129 578 +115 135 10,945 163 172 9
S. Korea 9,241 +104 131 +5 4,144 4,966 59 180 3

It's going to be close on my guesses, but I'll give them the rest of the day to see what happens.

I've started to look at something else that isn't readily apparent but a little bit tantalising: the current death to recovered rate. Right now, people are looking at deaths vs total cases and feeling fairly reassured (and it's potentially not going to be far off). However, total cases are technical coin flips still in the air, and we're waiting of them to land heads or tails. For the certain results, the outcome isn't so favourable:

Country Cases Deaths Recovered Fatality Rate  
UK 11,658 578 135 81.1%  
Switzerland 11,811 191 131 59.3%  
Italy 80,589 8,215 10,361 44.2%  
USA 83,672 1,209 1,864 39.3%  
Spain 57,786 4,365 7,015 38.4%  
France 29,155 1,696 4,948 25.5%  
Iran 29,406 2,234 10,457 17.6%  
Germany 43,938 267 5,673 4.5%  
China 81,285 3,287 74,051 4.3%  
S. Korea 9,241 131 4,144 3.1%  

Good ol' Blighty, leading the way. Now, there are obvious flaws in this right now while things are still in their infancy (for example, people die sooner than the two week recovery period, so they'll be weighted more compared to those still recovering), but this is what's going to be useful when the virus is "over", so to speak, when the majority have already been through the ringer, so until then this is simply morbid speculation. I post it because I'm wondering how long it's going to take for the media to start doing the same, knowing these sorts of sensationalised figures can drive their engagement rates up (unless they are already).

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2 hours ago, Doro said:

Country     Cases     Deaths     Recovered     Fatality Rate

UK             11,658      578          135                 81.1%

math on fatality rate seems off...

578 of 11,658 is not 81.1%, (rather 4.9579687768% or almost 5% of UK infected are dying...) so they are using a more sensational calculation.

additionally US is currently at 1.4449278134%, or 1.5% of infected die.

On 3/12/2020 at 12:17 AM, LasraelLarson said:

the Island of UK is about to experience "yesterdays Italy" levels in about 20 days, or less.

on March 11 Italy was reporting 12,462 cases & 827 deaths.  20 days is April first.  looks like the less than 20 days is gonna be about right.


the first week of April will be a pretty interesting dynamic to watch.  big bills like rent coming due, etc.

it is one thing to evict a small number of people, what happens across the globe defaulting happens en masse?  will there be another dynamic shift in news cycles?

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4 hours ago, LasraelLarson said:

math on fatality rate seems off...

578 of 11,658 is not 81.1%

It's not 578 of 11,658, it's 578 of 713 (deaths + recovered), because those are the "completed" results so far. Anyone currently infected is still technically waiting for the coin flip to land, one way or the other.

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4 minutes ago, Doro said:

It's not 578 of 11,658, it's 578 of 713 (deaths + recovered), because those are the "completed" results so far. Anyone currently infected is still technically waiting for the coin flip to land, one way or the other.

and then there is the question of reinfection...  what percentage of the recovered are actually immune?

additionally what if the virus does cause secondary health risks, or permanent damage and someone who recovers the first time, isn't so lucky when reinfected?

regardless testing is not at 100% saturation in every country and tests do not produce 100% accurate results, so for now we have reports and we are still basically watching surge points.

so comparisons have limitations.

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2 minutes ago, LasraelLarson said:

and then there is the question of reinfection...  what percentage of the recovered are actually immune?

additionally what if the virus does cause secondary health risks, or permanent damage and someone who recovers the first time, isn't so lucky when reinfected?

regardless testing is not at 100% saturation in every country and tests do not produce 100% accurate results, so for now we have reports and we are still basically watching surge points.

so comparisons have limitations.

Yeah, and that's why it's so easy to criticize governments. They almost all try to do what's best (I have my doubts about Brazil...) based on the incomplete information. It's based on guesses, so some will be wrong, so easy times to be the opposition, because mistakes will be made, because of that lack of complete, perfect, information and as opposition, you don't have to make decisions.

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27 minutes ago, LasraelLarson said:

and then there is the question of reinfection...  what percentage of the recovered are actually immune?

additionally what if the virus does cause secondary health risks, or permanent damage and someone who recovers the first time, isn't so lucky when reinfected?

regardless testing is not at 100% saturation in every country and tests do not produce 100% accurate results, so for now we have reports and we are still basically watching surge points.

so comparisons have limitations.

There's also the question of mutation into a potential zombie virus. We just don't know because they haven't been testing for it, and it could be that a month, a year, or even a generation later, this virus acts like a sleeper agent and all the infected, dead or recovered, are suddenly resurrected by the unforeseen genetic alterations it's had.

For all we know, the tests for the virus are detecting the common cold while the Chinese undead plague hides behind a tertiary virus caught off of bats that's exacerbating the cold virus. Has anyone bothered to check for solar flares or space radiation from returning satellites? They could have a dramatic impact on the ability of the virus alliance to adapt, maybe even taking in other viruses to make itself stronger.

Until we get some more concrete figures, current deaths don't matter when possible future flesh-eating ghouls will eventually overturn them. Then we'll have to compare undeath rates to total infected.

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27 minutes ago, Doro said:

...

sure thing Doro...  while you hand-wave nonsense....  i'll provide some additional interesting observations about China:

from the vid above:  the 21 million cell phone drop is interesting, as is the Wuhan Lab job application looking to study the molecular mechanism for Ebola and SARS to co-exist in bats.

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8 minutes ago, LasraelLarson said:

sure thing Doro...  while you hand-wave nonsense.... 

Just following your lead, broski.

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11 hours ago, Almagnus1 said:

It's cause we're doing far more testing than other countries.  When you test more, you find more.  Key thing to watch is the fatality rate, as we could be looking at a 3%, 1%, or .1% kill rate for the virus.... but infection numbers without the rest of the data means you can't really draw conclusions.

Of course more tests can mean more cases, but South Korea, is way ahead of the US in tests by way behind on positive cases as they acted much quicker then just about any other country.  Germany is upping the number of test to 500000 a week, which will increase the number of confirmed cases there but I suspect by a lower percentage the the US, as they have around half the cases of the US and have already done much more tests, and are further along then the US in terms of how long the virus has been active in the country.

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so the Prime Minister and the Health Secretory have both tested positive and the the chief medical office is showing symptoms.  This come the day after Prince Charles also tested positive.

All are showing mild symptoms, yet all bar the CMO got tested when the are front line health care staff that still cant get tested.  As long as their symptoms where only mild they should just have self isolated like anyone else would have to do.

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Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Tot Deaths/
1M pop
USA 102,464 +17,029 1,607 +312 2,471 98,386 2,463 310 5
Italy 86,498 +5,909 9,134 +919 10,950 66,414 3,732 1,431 151
China 81,394 +54 3,295 +3 74,971 3,128 886 57 2
Spain 65,719 +7,933 5,138 +773 9,357 51,224 4,165 1,406 110
Germany 50,871 +6,933 351 +84 6,658 43,862 1,581 607 4
France 32,964 +3,809 1,995 +299 5,700 25,269 3,787 505 31
Iran 32,332 +2,926 2,378 +144 11,133 18,821 2,893 385 28
UK 14,543 +2,885 759 +181 135 13,649 163 214 11
Switzerland 12,928 +1,117 231 +39 1,530 11,167 203 1,494 27
S. Korea 9,332 +91 139 +8 4,528 4,665 59 182 3

Come on, I was pretty fucking close! 12 hours out, but still.

Didn't expect UK to rise to 8th place, though. When did the lockdown come into effect? I guess there'll be no noticeable impact of a lockdown until around 2 weeks after it's in place, as all the infections in that time will have already happened without people realising it, they'll just start manifesting symptoms when they're inside.

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Trump should be dragged out of the WH on Easter and placed in a congested church until Sunday service is over. Shoulder to shoulder sitting in a pew with Trump in the middle of the pew.

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15 minutes ago, Splay said:

*snip*

I like that his handlers didn't come up with an actual excuse for the Easter date for him to trot out as needed, just let him dangle like a tit in the breeze going "it's a lovely date and wouldn't it be nice". It's blatant it's to appeal to his religious voters, but even they've got to see through that when there's no other reason to legitimately point to instead. I guess being vague but trying to wink to Christians is a safer option for him than going full believer and saying "Jesus will save us on Easter". Then again, he was trying to say a miracle would save the US and it would all disappear overnight.

If/when this really gets going in places like India, it'll be interesting to see just how much the religious element gets involved in this pandemic. It's been mostly hitting either secular or single-religion nations, but get a real mix like India and those tensions are going to catch fire.

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What's bad is that Trump has been doing this same braggadocio bullshit since his inauguration. Remember how his was the most widely attended ever but pictures showed it was average at best? His supporters don't give a flying fuck because he supposedly pwns the Libs. And he's been doing the exact same bullshit routine for 4 years.

Next up:

Trump asked about what governors can do to enable fed assistance for Covid-19: "very simple, I want them to be appreciative-I don't want them to say things that aren't true, I want them to be appreciative."

There's the threat folks, if they call out Trump's lies, their states will suffer. He wants them to kiss the ring.

Look at his statements from 6-8 weeks ago when he downplayed the hell out of this thing. Then he says he knew it was a pandemic all along. Do people not see the absolute bullshit this man says on a daily basis? There's several videos on it, including a good one from the Biden campaign - which Trump threatened the licenses of tv stations that ran the ad, in total disregard for 1st amendment rights.

Now he orders GM and Ford to make ventilators, like they have some fucking switch on their assembly line that says cars/ventilators. (Disregarding that automakers are shut down right now.)

God he's such an ignoramus.

TTT. Test, trace and treat. That's what's needed but too late now it seems.

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